Title page

Contents

Preface 5

Executive Summary 7

Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 Results 10

CHAPTER 1. Global Risks 2021: Fractured Future 15

CHAPTER 2. Error 404: Barriersto Digital Inclusivity 29

CHAPTER 3. Pandemials: Youth in an Age of Lost Opportunity 39

CHAPTER 4. Middle Power Morass 52

CHAPTER 5. Imperfect Markets: A Disorderly Industrial Shakeout 62

Hindsight: Reflections on Responses to COVID-19 72

Postscript: Foresight on Frontier Risks 84

Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks 2021 87

Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 90

Acknowledgements 94

TABLE 1.1. Peak Impact of COVID-19 on Key Macroeconomic Indicators: Seven Largest Economies 18

TABLE 3.1. Global Estimates of Youth Employment in Hard-Hit COVID-19 Sectors 43

FIGURE I. Global Risks Horizon 11

FIGURE II. Global Risks Landscape 12

FIGURE III. Global Risks Network 13

FIGURE IV. Evolving Risks Landscape 14

FIGURE 1.1. IMF World Output Projections 17

FIGURE 1.2. Fiscal Response to COVID-19 and Expected Growth in 2020 21

FIGURE 1.3. Global Emissions and Warming Goals 23

FIGURE 2.1. Internet Users, Select Countries 31

FIGURE 3.1. Risks Landscape 2021: The Global Shapers' Perspective 47

FIGURE 4.1. Significant Cyberattacks 2006-2020 (Total Number) 54

FIGURE 5.1. Gender Gap in Business Closure Rates 64

FIGURE 6.1. Approved International Finance Institute Financing by Month 74

FIGURE 6.2. Export Controls on Medical Supplies and Medicines 75

FIGURE 6.3. Expected GDP Decline versus Cumulative Deaths, as of 30 November 2020 77

Boxes

BOX 1.1. Future Preparedness for Global Risks 25

BOX 3.1. Risks Landscape 2021: The Global Shapers' Perspective 40

BOX 6.1. Pandemics and Crisis Response in the Global Risks Report Series 73

Box 6.2. Responding to COVID-19: Regional Characteristics 79

FIGURE B.1. Global Risk Response 92

FIGURE B.2. Survey Sample Composition 93