Title page

Contents

INTRODUCTION 5

CHAPTER 1. EUROPE'S PERMANENT SUEZ 9

CHAPTER 2. EUROPE'S CRITICAL CHOICES 16

THE FISCAL PROBLEM 16

THE HOSTAGE PROBLEM 19

THE COLLECTIVE ACTION PROBLEM 21

THE JUST TRANSITION PROBLEM 22

THE INDUSTRIAL PROBLEM 24

CHAPTER 3. THE GREEN WORLD ORDER 29

THE DEATH OF THE OLD ORDER 31

CLASH OF THE GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL POLICIES 35

THE CLASH OF THE GLOBAL MINING WEBS 37

THE MINING STATES STRIKE BACK 38

FUNDING A GLOBAL TRANSITION 45

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: EUROPE'S RESPONSE TO THE GREEN WORLD ORDER 47

MAKING THE UNION FIT FOR PURPOSE 47

MAINTAINING GLOBAL COOPERATION 48

EUROPE, THE UNITED STATES, AND CHINA 49

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 51

ABOUT THE AUTHORS 53

Table 1. Europe's Green Deal Industrial Plan 18

Figure 1. A Brief Timeline of Europe's Energy Vulnerabilities 10

Figure 2. Germany's Coal Backsliding 22

Figure 3. China's Automobile Revolution 27

Figure 4. China's 'All of the Above' Energy 32

Figure 5. The IRA Is Not Holding Back EU Automobiles 34

Figure 6. Europe's Unhealthy Reliance on Oil Imports 39

Figure 7. Europe's Unhealthy Reliance on Metal Imports 40

Figure 8. The Critical Mineral Trade Remains Outmatched by the Fossil Fuels Trade 42

Figure 9. Share of global exports subject to an export restriction, 2020 43

Figure 10. Share of global exploration budget for select materials by country, 2012 and 2022 44