Executive summary 3

1. Introduction 7

2. Ukraine: an assessment 1991 – 2021/2023 8
2.1 Economic and governance developments 1991-2021/2023 8
2.2. Ukraine's performance compared to other actual and potential EU candidates 12

3. War scenarios 15

4. Preparing Ukraine for accession 17
4.1 The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement 17
4.2 Lessons from previous enlargements 19
4.3 The current accession process following the Revised Enlargement Methodology 21
4.4 How to adapt the accession process for Ukraine 22
4.5 How to avoid disadvantaging the Western Balkan countries 24
4.6 Interaction between reconstruction and accession 24

5. Long-term effects of Ukraine’s accession on the EU 26
5.1 EU governance 26
5.2 Internal security and the rule of law 27
5.3 Security strategy of the EU 30
5.4 Migration and employment 31
5.5 Trade, FDI, internal market, GDP 37
5.6 Energy security and decarbonisation 45
5.7 EU budget 49

6. Concluding remarks 53

References 55

Annex 1: MFF calculations 60