목차
Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 3
Executive Summary 4
1.0. Introduction 16
1.1. Achieving Net-Zero in Indonesia 16
1.2. Achieving Net-Zero in the Transport Sector in Indonesia 17
1.3. Purpose of a Sustainable Asset Valuation of the Net-Zero Transport Strategy in Indonesia 20
2.0. Methodology 21
2.1. System Mapping 21
2.2. Summary of Indicators Valued by the SAVi Assessment 24
2.3. Discount Rates 26
2.4. Limitations 26
3.0. Scenarios and Assumptions 27
3.1. Valuation Methodologies for the Investment and Costs, Added Benefits and Avoided Costs 31
4.0. Results 41
4.1. Integrated Cost-Benefit Analysis 41
4.2. Benefit-to-Cost Ratios From Different Perspectives 50
4.3. Detailed Discussion of Added Costs and Avoided Benefits 51
5.0. Discussion and Conclusion 59
6.0. References 60
Appendix A. SAVi assessment and the IV2045 Model 63
Appendix B. Undiscounted Integrated Cost-Benefit Analysis 64
Appendix C. Main Assumptions and Data Sources Used for the System Dynamics Model 67
Table ES1. Integrated cost-benefit analysis (discounted cumulative values for the three main net-zero transport scenarios), in IDR trillion 6
Table ES2. Integrated CBA results and BCRs of the sensitivity analysis of Scenario 2 (secondary scenarios) 9
Table ES3. How different stakeholders and decision-makers can use the results of the SAVi assessment of the net-zero transport strategy in Indonesia 10
Table 1. Causal relations and causality 22
Table 2. Investments, costs, added benefits and avoided costs 24
Table 3. Benefit-cost ratios considered in the SAVi assessment of the net-zero transport strategy in Indonesia 25
Table 4. Description of the scenarios simulated in the net-zero transport strategy SAVi assessment 27
Table 5. Summary of the scenarios simulated in the net-zero transport strategy SAVi assessment 28
Table 6. Net-zero transport scenario 1: Investment in public transport systems 29
Table 7. Net-zero transport Scenario 2: Private vehicle electrification, including sensitivity analyses 2a and 2b 30
Table 8. Net-zero transport Scenario 3: Mixed 30
Table 9. Power generation technologies and their cost per megawatt by 2030 32
Table 10. Length of public transport networks 33
Table 11. Health cost of air pollution 38
Table 12. CO₂ emission factor per energy source 39
Table 13. Noise cost per v-km by transport mode 39
Table 14. Cost of accident per transport mode 40
Table 15. Integrated CBA (discounted values at 11.33% and 3.5% for the net-zero transport scenarios), IDR trillion 42
Table 16. Integrated CBA (discounted values at 3.5% for the net-zero transport scenarios), IDR trillion 45
Table 17. Integrated CBA (discounted values for the net-zero transport Scenario 2, including sensitivity analysis of Scenarios 2a and 2b), IDR trillion 47
Table 18. BCRs from different perspectives and across all net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 11.33% and 3.5%) 51
Table 19. Cumulative values of real GDP benefits across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 11.33%), IDR trillion 54
Table 20. Cumulative values of BRT and MRT revenues across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 11.33%), IDR trillion 55
Table 21. Cumulative values of health benefits from increased physical activity across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 3.5%), IDR trillion 55
Table 22. Cumulative values of avoided costs of conventional vehicles across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 11.33%), IDR trillion 56
Table 23. Cumulative values of avoided energy costs across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 11.33%), IDR trillion 56
Table 24. Cumulative values of avoided costs of air pollution real across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 3.5%), IDR trillion 57
Table 25. Cumulative values of avoided costs of CO₂ emissions across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 3.5%), IDR trillion 57
Table 26. Cumulative values of avoided noise pollution costs across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 3.5%), IDR trillion 58
Table 27. Cumulative values of avoided costs of accidents across main net-zero transport scenarios (discounted at 3.5%), IDR trillion 58
Figure 1. Causal loop diagram for the net-zero transport strategy in Indonesia 23
Figure 2. Number of electric cars per net-zero scenario 34
Figure 3. Number of electric buses per net-zero scenario 34
Figure 4. Net benefits of the three scenarios (discounted at 11.3% and 3.5%) 41
Figure 5. Added benefits and avoided costs of Scenario 3 52
Figure 6. Investment costs, revenues, added benefits, and avoided costs across the three main scenarios 53
Figure 7. Total green jobs created 54
Figure 8. Transport-related CO₂ emissions 57
Table B1. Integrated cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (undiscounted values for the net-zero transport scenarios), IDR trillion 64
Table C1. Overview of key assumptions used in the SAVi assessment of the net-zero transport strategy in Indonesia 67
