목차
Executive Summary 01
Introduction 02
Flaw #1: Outscoping costs 04
Sunk costs before 2030 in GenCost 04
Consumer Energy Resources treated as free in ISP 05
Costs of recycling renewables and battery waste not included in ISP08
Flaw #2: Outscoping carbon 09
Lifecycle emissions of renewables not considered in ISP 09
Flaw #3: ‘Match-fixing’ the energy transition 10
Lack of a neutral baseline scenario in the ISP 10
Forcing preferred transmission outcomes through input and constraint manipulation 13
Flaw #4: Overfitting the model 14
Model builds just-in-time gas capacity for perfectly predicted weather in ISP 14
Flaw #5: Disintegrating the integrated system 16
Methodology breaks apart integrated system in ISP 16
Government-committed projects locked in without proper scrutiny in ISP 17
Flaw #6: Cherry-picking data 18
Large-scale nuclear ignored in favour of cherry-picked SMR costs in GenCost 18
Coal and gas fuel cost estimates cherry-picked from Ukraine price spike in GenCost 19
Unrealistic new-build coal plant costs in GenCost 20
Modelled delivery year different from actual delivery year for projects in ISP 21
Years with potential reliability breaches ignored in ISP 22
Recommendations Summary 23
Conclusion 24
Endnotes25
