Title page

Contents

Executive Summary 5

1. Introduction: The Energy Trilemma and Gas in a Net-Zero World 7

2. The Role of Natural Gas in a Global Net-Zero Energy System 10

Natural Gas in a Decarbonized Power System 10

Natural Gas for Industrial Uses 11

Low-Hanging Fruit: Abatement Costs by Decarbonization Measure 12

3. Market and Regional Variations - One Size Won't Fit All 14

Gas-Producing Developing Countries 14

Energy-Importing Developing Countries 15

4. Financing Sustainable and Equitable Development in Line with Energy Transitions 18

Finance Restrictions from North onto South 19

5. Conclusions 21

About the Author 22

Figure 1. GHG abatement costs for selected measures of the Sustainable Recovery Plan 12

Figure 2. Share of Population with Access to Electricity in 2021 15

Figure 3. Stylized depiction of a horizontal (left) versus a vertical (right) grid energy transition 16

Figure 4. Power generation capacity additions and retirements by source in the IEA Sustainable Africa Scenario 17

Figure 5. Investment in natural gas supply in the NZE 18

Figure 6. Selected MDBs commitments to the gas sector, 2008-2021 19

Box Figures

Figure 1. Mean US Household CO₂e Emissions (2019) per Income Group 9