Title page

Contents

Acknowledgments 8

Authors 9

Abbreviations 10

Overview 11

I. Introduction 16

II. Characteristics of IDA countries 22

III. Recent developments amid overlapping crises: 2020-23 29

IV. Near-term growth prospects: 2024-25 40

V. Output losses, growth, convergence, and poverty 45

VI. Risks to the outlook 52

VII. Natural resources and demographic dividends 57

VIII. Investment needs and policies 63

IX. Domestic policy priorities 69

X. Global support 79

XI. Conclusion 84

Appendix 88

References 94

TABLE 1. GDP growth 31

TABLE 2. GDP growth per capita 48

FIGURE 1. IDA countries: prospects, risks, and policies 14

FIGURE 2. Characteristics of IDA countries 24

FIGURE 3. Characteristics of IDA countries (continued) 25

FIGURE 4. Characteristics of IDA countries (continued) 27

FIGURE 5. Macroeconomic developments: activity 32

FIGURE 6. Inflation, commodity prices, and food insecurity 34

FIGURE 7. Fiscal accounts 35

FIGURE 8. External accounts 38

FIGURE 9. Near-term prospects 42

FIGURE 10. Output losses and growth 47

FIGURE 11. Per capita income growth 49

FIGURE 12. Extreme poverty 50

FIGURE 13. Risks 55

FIGURE 14. Demographic and resource dividends 60

FIGURE 15. Investment needs and accelerations 65

FIGURE 16. Fiscal and monetary policy challenges 72

FIGURE 17. Learning losses and gender gaps 76

FIGURE 18. Global support 81

TABLE A.1. Characteristics of IDA countries 88

TABLE A.2. IDA graduates 92