Title page

Contents

Executive Summary 3

Introduction 4

1. Carbon in the Biosphere 6

2. Energy Transitions 10

3. Our Record So Far 16

4. What It Would Take to Reverse the Past Emission Trend 18

5. The Task Ahead: Zero Carbon Electricity and Hydrogen 20

6. Costs, Politics, and Demand 26

7. Realities versus Wishful Thinking 31

8. Closing Thoughts 34

References 36

About the Author 43

Acknowledgments 43

Publishing Information 44

About the Fraser Institute 45

Editorial Advisory Board 46

Figure 1. Global CO₂ Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Rose 19-fold between 1900 and 2022 6

Figure 2. Average Annual CO₂ Concentrations Measured at Mauna Loa Rose by 34 Percent Between 1958 and 2023 7

Figure 3. CO₂ Emissions According to the IEA's Scenarios 8

Figure 4. The IEA's Global Turning Points Followed by a Long and Substantial Presence of Fossil Fuels in the Stated Policies Scenario 12

Figure 5. Global Dependence on Fossil Fuels Has Continued to Rise in the Twenty-first Century 16

Figure 6. Primary Green Ironmaking 22

Figure 7. The Declining Quality of Chilean Copper Resources Between 1999 and 2016 24

Figure 8. Forecast of New Airplane Deliveries between 2023 and 2042 29