목차
So far, so good... ix
Introduction ix
The year under review ix
Pressure points and risks ahead x
Policy challenges xii
The AI wave xvi
I. Laying a robust macro-financial foundation for the future 1
The year in retrospect 2
On course for a smooth landing 2
Sustained disinflation opened the door to a monetary policy pivot 4
Box A: China as a disinflationary force 6
The financial system positioned for a smooth landing 8
Box B: The role of monetary policy in the recent inflation episode 11
Pressure points 13
Inflation pressure points 13
Macro-financial pressure points 14
Box C: Commercial real estate risks in the spotlight 17
Box D: The challenge of private credit 20
Fiscal pressure points 22
Productivity pressure points 22
Box E: Life insurance companies – legacy risks from “low for long” 23
Turbulence scenarios and policy implications 26
Turbulence scenarios 26
Policy implications 28
Endnotes 32
Technical annex 34
References 38
II. Monetary policy in the 21st century: lessons learned and challenges ahead 41
Introduction 41
Monetary policy conduct in the 21st century: a brief review 42
Lessons learned 44
Central banks can forestall inflation de-anchoring 45
Central banks can stabilise the financial system in times of stress 46
Prolonged monetary easing runs into limits 49
Box A: Are the effects of balance sheet policies (a)symmetric? 52
Communication has become more complicated 56
Box B: Central bank financial results and their economic implications 57
FX intervention and macroprudential policies can enhance stability 60
Challenges ahead 62
Implications for monetary policy 64
Robustness 64
Realism in ambition 65
Box C: The natural rate of interest: a blurry guidepost for monetary policy 66
Safety margins 67
Nimbleness 68
Box D: Central bank balance sheet choices 69
Complementary policies 71
Conclusion 72
Endnotes 74
Technical annex 78
References 82
III. Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks 91
Introduction 91
Developments in artificial intelligence 93
Box A: Words as vectors: a primer on embeddings 95
Box B: A primer on the transformer architecture 98
Financial system impact of AI 99
Harnessing AI for policy objectives 103
Box C: BIS Innovation Hub projects in artificial intelligence 107
Box D: Nowcasting with artificial intelligence 108
Macroeconomic impact of AI 109
Box E: Gen AI and labour productivity: a field experiment on coding 110
Toward an action plan for central banks 114
Endnotes 117
Technical annex 120
References 121
