목차
Title page 1
Contents 6
Foreword 4
Acknowledgements 5
Executive Summary 8
1. Introduction 9
1.1. The Belt and Road Initiative: History, motivation and goals 9
1.2. The Belt and Road Initiative: Scope of investment 12
1.2.1. Sectoral scope 12
1.2.2. Geographical scope 13
1.3. Scope of the analysis 17
1.4. Data 18
1.4.1. The China Global Investment Tracker from the American Enterprise Institute 18
1.4.2. Global customs seizures 18
2. The Belt and Road Initiative: Assessing the risks of illicit trade 19
2.1. Evolution of reported seizures of counterfeits departing from China 19
2.2. Analysis of the potential links between the value of BRI investment in transport and logistics and the global export of counterfeit goods 31
2.2.1. Value of seizures 31
2.2.2. Volume of seizures 33
3. Conclusions 36
References 37
Notes 39
Annex A. Additional data 40
Tables 6
Table 1.1. Number of economies participating in the BRI with China, by region 15
Table 1.2. OECD countries participating in the BRI 15
Table 1.3. EU countries in the BRI 15
Figures 6
Figure 1.1. Exports from China as a share of total world exports, 1992-2021 11
Figure 1.2. Distribution of BRI projects by sectors, 2013-23 12
Figure 1.3. Distribution of BRI construction and investment projects between regions, 2013-23 13
Figure 1.4. Distribution of transport and logistics BRI projects between regions, 2013-2023 14
Figure 1.5. Evolution of exports from China to selected regions and countries before and after the Belt and Road Initiative, 2001-2013 and 2013-2021 16
Figure 1.6. Share of selected regions and countries in total exports from China, 2005-2021 17
Figure 2.1. Evolution in number and value of reported seizures of goods departing from China, 2015-2022 20
Figure 2.2. Distribution of in the value of reported seizures of goods departing from China by transport mode, 2015-2022 21
Figure 2.3. Evolution of transport modes usage for EU27 imports from China, 2007-22 22
Figure 2.4. Correlation between the value of EU seizures related to maritime transport and China's share in the total value of EU seizures, 2015-22 22
Figure 2.5. Evolution in the number and value of reported EU seizures of goods shipped from China and transported by sea, 2015-22 23
Figure 2.6. Evolution in the number and value of EU seizures of goods coming from China and transported by rail, 2015-22 24
Figure 2.7. Evolution in the value of EU imports and EU seizures related to various modes of transport from China, 2015-2022 25
Figure 2.8. Share of EU seizures of goods shipped from China in total EU seizures by mode of transport, 2015-22 26
Figure 2.9. Share of imports transiting European ports in which Chinese parties have invested, in total volume of incoming containers, 2013-22 27
Figure 2.10. Number of entry ports indicated in reported seizures, 2015-2022 28
Figure 2.11. Distribution of ports by the number of years they were indicated as entry ports in reported seizures, 2015-2022 29
Figure 2.12. Share of volumes of containers and seizures in EU ports in which China has invested, 2015-2022 29
Figure 2.13. Share of seizures in EU27 ports with Chinese investment in total seizures in EU27 ports, 2015-22 30
Figure 2.14. Link between the value of BRI investment in transport and logistics 2015-17 and the value of fake exports (value of global seizures), 2017-19 32
Figure 2.15. Link between the value of BRI investment in transport and logistics 2015-17 and the value of fake exports (value of global customs seizures) 2017-19,... 32
Figure 2.16. Link between the value of BRI investment in transport and logistics 2015-17 and the value of fake exports (value of global customs seizures) 2017-19,... 33
Figure 2.17. Link between the value of BRI construction investment in transport and logistics 2013-15 and the value of fake exports (value of global seizures) 2017-19 33
Figure 2.18. Link between the value of BRI investment in transport and logistics 2015-17 and the exports of fakes (in terms of number of global customs seizures), 2017-19 34
Figure 2.19. Link between the value of BRI construction investment in transport and logistics 2013-15 and the exports of fakes (in terms of number of global seizures) 2017-19 34
Boxes 7
Box 1.1. BRI objectives in China's 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans 10
Annex Tables 6
Table A.A.1. Top 100 container ports in the world 44
Table A.A.2. Ownership of COSCO and CMP in EU container ports 46
Annex Figures 7
Figure A.A.1. Evolution in number and value of reported seizures of goods departing from China and Hong Kong, China, 2015-2022 40
Figure A.A.2. Distribution of in the value of reported seizures of goods departing from China and Hong Kong, China by transport mode, 2015-2022 41
Figure A.A.3. Correlation between the value of EU seizures related to maritime transport and combined China's and Hong Kong, China’s share in the total... 42
Figure A.A.4. Evolution in the number and value of reported EU seizures of goods shipped from China and Hong Kong, China and transported by sea, 2015-22 42
Figure A.A.5. Share of EU seizures of goods shipped from China and Hong Kong, China in total EU seizures by mode of transport, 2015-22 43
