Title page 1

Contents 1

Summary 2

1. What were the initial assessments of the damage to Iran's nuclear programme? 4

2. How effective are Iran's alliances in the Middle East? 7

2.1. The weakening of Iran's "axis of resistance" 8

2.2. Limits to Israel's power in the region 9

3. Was Iran's government weakened? 11

3.1. Statements on regime chang 11

3.2. Domestic response and situation in Iran 12

3.3. Loss of senior leaders and leadership succession 14

4. What are the further risks and what is the outlook in 2025? 15

4.1. Further military action 15

4.2. Renewed nuclear talks 16

4.3. Iran develops a nuclear weapon 17

4.4. Iranian action overseas increases, including in the UK 19

4.5. Snapback sanctions against Iran are applied 21