목차
About This Report iii
Summary v
Figures and Tables xvii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction 1
Methodology and Structure 2
CHAPTER 2
Ceasefire Best Practices 5
Ceasefire Definitions 5
Ceasefires in Interstate and Intrastate Wars 6
What Makes a Ceasefire Successful? 7
Assessment of Specific Ceasefire Mechanisms 12
Implications for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War 22
CHAPTER 3
Lessons Learned from the Minsk Agreements 27
Background 28
Minsk-2 31
Lessons Learned 35
Conclusion 48
CHAPTER 4
The Role of Remote-Sensing Technology 51
Past Uses of Remote-Sensing Technology in Ceasefire Monitoring and Peacekeeping 53
How Remote-Sensing Technology Can Contribute to Ceasefire Maintenance 55
The Case for Remote Sensing in a Possible Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire 61
The Geography of the Current Conflict Line 65
Remote-Sensing Technology for Ceasefire Monitoring 77
Critical Considerations When Employing Remote-Sensing Technology 100
Conclusion 103
CHAPTER 5
Conclusion 107
Top-Line Recommendations 107
Abbreviations 109
References 111
Figures and Tables
Figures
3.1 The Minsk Conflict-Resolution Ecosystem 38
4.1 The Conflict Line and Surrounding Areas 67
4.2 The Conflict Line in Polesia 68
4.3 The Conflict Line in the Steppe 70
4.4 Ukraine’s Coastline 73
Tables
2.1 Mechanisms Associated with Durable Peace in Interstate Ceasefires 23
3.1 The Minsk Conflict-Resolution Ecosystem 39
3.2 Lessons Learned from the Minsk Agreements and Recommendations for a Future Ceasefire Agreement 48
4.1 Summary of Discussed Sensing Capabilities 78
4.2 Remote-Sensing Technologies: Advantages, Disadvantages, and Recommendations 97
