How Might NATO Allies Respond if the United States Retrenches from Europe?

□ 보고서는 트럼프 2기 행정부의 유럽 주둔 미군 감축 가능성에 따라 NATO 동맹국의 대응을 분석함
ㅇ 분석은 3가지 전략 시나리오(Global Primacy, Prioritize Asia, Prioritize Western Hemisphere)와 4개 정책 영역(안보공약·군사태세·경제정책·對러 정책)을 중심으로 진행함
ㅇ 전략 혼합 적용 가능성을 전제로 동맹국의 행동 변화를 예측함

□ Global Primacy는 NATO 공약 유지와 對러 강경노선을, Prioritize Asia는 아시아 집중과 점진적 감축을, Western Hemisphere는 유럽 급격 축소와 러시아 데탕트를 지향함
ㅇ 각 전략은 유럽의 방위태세 및 미국의 글로벌 영향력에 상이한 파급을 가짐

□ 미국의 전략적 후퇴는 유럽 동맹국의 군비 증강과 협력 심화를 유도할 수 있음
ㅇ 급격한 감축 시 안보 공백과 비효율적 투자 발생 우려
ㅇ 공약이 개별국 중심으로 운용될 경우 집단방위 약화 가능성 존재
ㅇ 러시아와 데탕트 시 대미 정보공유 및 협력이 위축될 수 있음

□ 고율 관세 지속 시 유럽의 성장 둔화와 방위비 여력 감소, 對중 공조 약화 가능성 존재

□ 정책 권고는 ① 공약의 NATO 단위 적용 ② 관세 완화 통한 방위비 확보 ③ 러시아 양보를 조건으로 한 데탕트 추진 등으로 제시됨

□ 미국의 후퇴는 유럽 자율방위 강화와 동시에 안보 공백 및 영향력 축소를 초래할 수 있음