On the Horizon, Vol.8 : A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation

Introduction 1

Industry 4.0 and the Nuclear Nexus

Delegating Authority, Retaining Responsibility: Trust, Blame, and the Role of AI in Nuclear Arms Control 4

Using Industry and Cloud Manufacturing to Assist in Modernizing the Nuclear Security Enterprise 20

Sailing through the Sightless Sense: The Psychology of the Algorithmic Nuclear Deterrence and Human-Machine Relations 33

Imagining Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear, Command, Control, and Communication: Between Fiction, Historical Analogy, and Technical Reality 44

Nuclear Advances and Escalation Risks in Great Power Rivalry

Don’t Believe the Hype(rsonic): Implications of Russia’s Novel Nuclear Weapons 59

Disruption: Examining the Practicalities of China’s Nuclear Breakout 71

Leveraging the Nuclear Threat 83

Nuclear-Armed Anti-Satellite Weapon System in Space: Implications and Escalation Dynamics 94

Modernization, Diplomacy, and Strategic Stability Across Asia

Navigating the Depths: India’s Naval Modernization and Implications for the Indian Ocean Region 106

Influence Without Nukes: Kazakhstan’s Strategic Use of Nuclear Diplomacy to Advance Its National Interests 120

Dangerous by Design: Reconstructing North Korea’s Nulcear Command and Control and Its Implications for Deterrence and Crisis Stability 132

Crisis Management and Strategic Stability

Balancing Lethality and Restraint: How Targeting Matters for Escalation Management 146

More Kill Vehicles, More Problems: The Next Generation Interceptor and Crisis Stability 157

Effects of Non-Nuclear Strategic Weapons on First-Strike Stability 168

Adapting to the New Nuclear Age

Illusory Assurance 178

A Nuclear Iran: Exploring Saudi Arabia Courses of Action and U.S. Response Strategies 185

Exploring Nuclear Sufficiency Through a Tabletop Exercise 195

U.S. Partners and Allies

The UK’s Contribution to the Reassurance of Baltic Allies: “Moscow has character; London has considerations” 209

The Role of Damage Limitation and Conventional-Nuclear Integration in the Future of NATO’s European Pillar 219

Review of the Debate over U.S. Nuclear Weapons in South Korea 231

About the Editor 244