About This Report iii

Summary iv

Figures and Tables viii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1

Research Questions 1

Research Methodology 2

Report Structure 6

CHAPTER 2 Russia’s Strategic Objectives, Threat Perceptions, and Military Posture in the High North 7

Russia’s Strategic Interests and Objectives in the High North 7

Russia’s Threat Perceptions in the High North 11

Russia’s Military Posture in the High North 18

Conclusion 27

CHAPTER 3 Potential Escalation Risks in the High North 29

Assessing Escalation Risks 29

Conclusion 42

CHAPTER 4 Findings and Implications 43

How Does Russia View the High North? 43

Assessing Escalation Risks in the High North 44

Thinking Beyond the Russia-Ukraine War 47

Abbreviations 50

References 52