Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 5

Acknowledgements 6

Authors 6

Executive summary 7

Policy context 7

Key conclusions 7

Main findings 7

Related and future Joint Research Centre work 8

Quick guide 8

1. Introduction 9

2. LISFLOOD 11

2.1. Model description 11

2.2. Meteorological climate forcing 12

2.3. Socio-economic scenario's 13

2.3.1. Land use 13

2.3.2. Water demand 15

3. LISFLOOD-EPIC 17

3.1. Integration with the crop growth model EPIC 17

3.1.1. EPIC crop growth model 17

3.1.2. Water abstraction 18

3.1.3. Future CO₂ scenarios 19

3.2. Model WEFE interlinkages 20

3.2.1. CAPRI (Food) 20

3.2.2. PRIMES (Energy) 24

4. Evaluation of WEFE interlinkages in agriculture 26

4.1. Irrigated Area 26

4.2. Water abstractions for irrigation 28

5. Current pressures 33

5.1. Estimated irrigation water scarcity 33

5.1.1. Irrigation demand 33

5.1.2. Irrigation shortage 34

5.1.3. Yield and stress factors 35

5.2. Total water shortage and sustainability 37

6. Impact on future water resources and food production 40

6.1. Water availability 40

6.2. Sectorial water demand 41

6.2.1. Energy and other water demand 41

6.2.2. Agriculture and total water demand 42

6.3. Yield and stress factors 44

6.3.1. Maize 44

6.3.2. Wheat 46

6.4. Change in water shortage and sustainability 48

7. Adaptation measures 51

8. Conclusions 55

9. Model Limitations 57

References 59

List of abbreviations and definitions 63

Getting in touch with the EU 69

Finding information about the EU 69

Tables 68

Table 1. Regional climate projections within EURO-CORDEX used in the Tier1 and Tier2 scenario simulations 12

Figures 65

Figure 1. Structure of the LISFLOOD model, showing the main processes and model variables 11

Figure 2. Fraction in 2010 (a) and percentage of changes in forest between (b) 2010 and 2030, and (c) 2010 and 2050 14

Figure 3. Fraction in 2010 (a) and percentage of changes in the sum of the land use classes pasture, arable, permanent crop, semi natural... 14

Figure 4. Fraction in 2010 (a) and percentage of changes of the sum of the land use classes urban, industry and infrastructure between... 15

Figure 5. GoNEXUS' Model Toolbox and model interlinkages 17

Figure 6. (a) Spatially averaged CO₂ projections for the Ebro catchment, based on Cheng et al. (2022), for the hindcast period and two future... 20

Figure 7. Distribution of irrigated areas in Europe at 5 km x 5 km resolution from (a) Wriedt et al. (2009), (b) SPAM v3.2 and (c) aggregated at... 22

Figure 8. (a) Distribution of EU27 irrigated areas by country, shown as a percentage of the total, for five major crop types. Projected shifts... 23

Figure 9. Changes in water (a) withdrawals and (b) consumption in the EU27 from 2015 to 2070. Highlighting trends and shifts in the energy... 25

Figure 10. Irrigated areas estimated from Wriedt et al. (2009), SPAM v3.2 and CAPRI versus reported values (y-axis) from 2010 both at country... 27

Figure 11. Comparison between the CAPRI and SPAM v3.2 irrigated area both at (a) country and (b) regional level (NUTS2) in France (blue),... 27

Figure 12. Water abstraction for irrigation (Mm³) simulated with a) standard LISFLOOD including the irrigated area of Wriedt et al. (2009),... 28

Figure 13. Comparison of simulated irrigation water abstraction for different crop distribution sources (a, d: Wriedt et al., 2009; b, e: CAPRI; c,... 29

Figure 14. Comparison between the CAPRI and SPAM v3.2 irrigation water abstraction in absolute value (Mm³) and volume per year and... 30

Figure 15. Comparison between the CAPRI and SPAM v3.2 irrigation water abstraction in volume per year and per unit irrigated area (mm)... 31

Figure 16. (a) Annual average irrigation demand (1991-2020) and (b) variability of irrigation demand represented as the difference between... 33

Figure 17. (a) Annual 30-yr average local water availability and (b) Annual 30-yr average irrigation demand as a proportion of annual 30-yr... 34

Figure 18. (a) Annual 30-yr average total water availability, including local and external inflows. (b) 30-yr average irrigation demand... 35

Figure 19. Time series (1991-2020) of a) Yield, b) Relative Yield anomaly, c) Area and d) lost growth days by stress factor for irrigated + rainfed... 36

Figure 20. Area-weighted annual average (1991-2020) limiting stress factors contributing to biomass growth reduction, expressed in days per year,... 37

Figure 21. (a) Monthly climatology of water demand and supply for the upstream part of the Ebro, (b) Total water demand from various sectors... 38

Figure 22. Relative change of the 30-yr ensemble mean (2056-2085) of total water availability for both the (a) RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 emission... 40

Figure 23. Water demand for the energy sector at NUTS2 regional level in the (a) reference period and (b) the relative change in energy demand... 41

Figure 24. Water demand for industry, livestock and households at NUTS2 regional level in the (a) reference period and (b) the relative change... 42

Figure 25. (a) 30-yr ensemble mean of irrigation demand (1981-2010) and the relative change of the 30-yr ensemble mean (2056-2085)... 43

Figure 26. Total water demand for all sectors at the NUTS2 regional level: (a) reference period, and relative changes in demand by 2070... 43

Figure 27. The 30-yr ensemble mean change in crop yields for irrigated maize (both fodder and grain) in the (a) RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 scenarios... 44

Figure 28. The 30-yr ensemble mean number of stress days per year for irrigated maize, which encompasses heat, water, cold, and aeration stress,... 45

Figure 29. The 30-yr ensemble average of the most dominant limiting stress factor for irrigated maize for (a) current climate and both... 45

Figure 30. The 30-yr ensemble average change in crop yields for irrigated wheat in the (a) RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 emission scenarios relative... 47

Figure 31. The 30-yr ensemble average number of stress days per year for irrigated wheat, which encompasses heat, water, cold, and aeration... 47

Figure 32. The 30-yr ensemble average of the most dominant limiting stress factor for irrigated wheat for (a) current climate and both... 48

Figure 33. Change in demand-to-variability ratio, accounting for demand from all sectors between both (a) RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 emission... 49

Figure 34. Change in the water unsustainability index, defined as the ratio of unmet demand to total water demand, for (a) current climate... 49

Figure 35. Annual average water abstraction requirements from the reference simulation (1990-2018) (a), and the relative reduction in abstraction... 51

Figure 36. Relative effectiveness of each individual measure in reducing water abstraction 52

Figure 37. Identification of the most effective water-saving measure in reducing (a) water abstraction requirements and (b) actual water consumption 53

Figure 38. Water scarcity days (WEI+ > 0.2) in a year from the reference simulation (1990-2018) (a), and the reduction in water scarcity days... 54

Figure 39. (a) Percentage of actual irrigated crop in a NUTS2 region from the CAPRI irrigated area data, and (b) scatter plot of potential irrigated... 57