About the Authors i

Foreword 1

Executive Summary 3

Introduction 5

The Biden Administration as the Essential Case 7

Structure, Method, and Limits of the Case Study 8

Chapter 1: A Strategy of Renewal 11

Pandemic Tensions and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election 11

Biden’s Competitive China Strategy 14

The “Invest, Align, Compete” Strategy 16

Developing the Strategy 19

Similarities and Differences with the First Trump Administration’s Strategy 22

Establishing a China-Focused Bureaucratic Structure 24

Chapter 2: The Administrative Machinery of Competition 29

China House 29

The Intelligence Community 29

The Pentagon’s Strategy and Implementation 31

Chapter 3: A Rough Start for U.S.-China Relations in 2021 34

Anchorage 40

Tariffs, Human Rights, and Continuities with Trump: April–December 2021 44

Chapter 4: Allies and Partners: The Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Global South 47

The Indo-Pacific Latticework 48

The Quad and AUKUS 50

India, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines 54

Europe and Intel Diplomacy 58

Was This Just Containment Redux? 60

The Global South 61

Chapter 5: Turbulent Waters in 2022 67

China’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 68

U.S.-Taiwan Relations and Pelosi’s Visit: August 2022 71

The Building of a “Floor” at Bali: November 2022 78

Chapter 6: Technology Competition and Congress 81

“Small Yard, High Fence”: Export Controls, Commerce, and the AI Race 81

CHIPS, Industrial Policy, and Congressional Diplomacy 87

Chapter 7: The Struggle for Guardrails 91

Military Relations with Beijing 91

Faltering Cooperation on Climate: SPEC and Sunnylands 93

AI Safety: An Emerging Frontier 94

Chapter 8: Moves in the Right Direction: 2023–2024 95

Balloon-Gate: February 2023 96

The Sullivan-Wang Strategic Channel: May 2023 101

Communication, Stabilization, and the Woodside Summit: November 2023 108

Post-Woodside to Lima: 2024 115

Chapter 9: Biden’s Record and Lessons for the Future 119

What the Biden Administration Accomplished 119

Military Sufficiency Versus Military Predominance in the Indo-Pacific 122

Other Shortcomings and Lessons for the Future 123

Biden Versus Trump: Dueling Strategies? 126

Areas for Further Debate 128

Conclusion 131

Appendix 133

Notes 137

About 185