EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2

1. THE TURNING POINT: EUROPE’S NEIGHBOURHOOD AS ATHEATRE OF GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION 3

2. FRONTIER REGIONS AS STRESS-TESTS, NOT CASE STUDIES 4

3. THE READINESS GAP: AMBITION WITHOUT PREPAREDNESS 6

4. MILITARY MOBILITY: WHERE EUROPE’S GEOPOLITICAL AMBITION MEET SPHYSICAL REALITY 9

5. THE BLACK SEA: A PRIMARY THEATRE OF EUROPE’S GEOPOLITICAL CONTEST 11

6. BELARUS: RETHINKING EUROPE’S STRATEGIC APPROACH 13

7. THE WESTERN BALKANS: MANAGED STABILITY AND THE COST OF POSTPONEMENT 14

CONCLUSION: BRIDGING FRONTLINES 15