Executive Summary 4

1. Introduction 6

2. The EU’s Migration Diplomacy with the MENA Region 7

2.1 Mapping Deals with MENA Countries: Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan 7

2.2 Characteristics of the Deals 10

2.3 Outlook: Which Countries Will Be Next? 16

3. (Non-)Effects of the EU’s Current Migration Diplomacy 18

3.1 How Old Money Makes New Deals: The Art of Repackaging Funding 18

3.2 One Factor Among Others: The Full Picture Behind Lower Arrival Numbers 20

3.3 Just Migration Deals? Comprehensiveness Often Only on Paper 25

3.4 The EU’s Standing in Partner Countries: Barely Helpful, Sometimes Even Harmful 26

3.5 Human Rights Violations: Most Pre-date the Deals, But EU Money May Sustain Them 28

4. Recommendations 31

4.1 Transparency: Increase It to Allow for an Informed Debate 31

4.2 Monitoring: Introduce the Partnership Effects Monitoring Mechanism (PEMM) 32

4.3 Conditionality: Apply Conditions When Implementing Deals 33

4.4 Mobility Pathways: Expand Them to Ensure the Sustainability of the Migration Cooperation 33

4.5 Communication: Adapt How the Deals Are Sold 34

5. Annex 35

List of Interviews 35