Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 1

Abbreviations 5

1. Introduction 6

2. The role of lead in off-grid electrification 10

2.1. Low and unreliable electricity access constrains sub-Saharan Africa's development 10

2.2. Expanding electricity access is a significant political priority for African citizens, governments, and their development partners 12

2.3. Rapid electrification will rely heavily on off-grid solutions 14

2.4. Off-grid solar systems require battery storage-with lead-acid batteries still dominating the market 15

3. Addressing safety risks from lead acid batteries 19

3.1. Without appropriate EoL management, lead acid batteries create severe health and safety risks 19

3.2. Actual recycling practices in Sub-Saharan Africa are enormously polluting and unsafe 21

3.3. Economic incentives cut against safe recycling 22

4. Market deep-dive-the off-grid solar industry 23

4.1. The supply of off-grid solar products is vast, unorganized, diverse, and bifurcated 23

4.2. Demand is shaped by macroeconomic factors, price reductions, and development commitments 25

4.3. The off-grid solar sector includes diverse stakeholders and interest groups 26

5. Discussion and conclusion 27

Appendix: Estimating ULAB volumes 30

Part 1: Calculating total volumes of off-grid solar products and usage of lead-acid batteries 31

Part 2: Estimating ULAB waste associated with off-grid solar 32

Part 3: Calculating off-grid solar-associated ULAB waste as a proportion of all ULAB waste 32

Works cited 34

TABLE 1. Comparing performance and characteristics of lithium-ion and lead-acid batteries 16

TABLE 2. Off-grid solar ULAB waste generation estimates 18

TABLE 3. Unaffiliated market share in selected sub-Saharan African countries 23

TABLE 4. GOGLA industry members 27

FIGURE 1. Percent of the population with access to electricity, global and sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2023 6

FIGURE 2. Sub-Saharan African electricity access rate, 2023 11

FIGURE 3. Estimated Mission 300 expansions in electricity access via off-grid electricity 13

FIGURE 4. Country compact electrification goals, Mission 300 14

FIGURE 5. ULAB volume generation in sub-Saharan Africa 19

Boxes 4

BOX 1. The role of lead-acid batteries in mini-grids 17

PART 1. Calculating total lead-powered off-grid solar products (based on GOGLA sales data 2019-2024) 31

PART 2. Calculating low- and high-end estimates 32

Calculating off-grid solar-associated ULAB waste as a proportion of all ULAB waste 33