Contents

Acknowledgements v

Abbreviations vi

Executive summary vii

Chapter 1. Introduction 1

Chapter 2. Theoretical framework 5

2.1 Production shocks and connectivity in a structural gravity model of bilateral trade 6

2.2 The impact of trade policy changes on trade flows 8

2.3 Dynamics of weather shocks, policy effects, and trade responses 9

Chapter 3. Methodology 10

3.1 Analysis of crop-specific weather shocks’ impact on individual commodity trade 11

3.2 Analysis of generic weather shocks on trade across all commodities 12

3.3 Role of the network connectivity 12

3.4 Estimation strategy 13

Chapter 4. Data and variable construction 14

4.1 Trade values 15

4.2 Trade links 16

4.3 Network connectivity measures 16

4.4 Policy changes 17

4.5 Weather shock variables 21

Chapter 5. Results 22

5.1 Impact of weather shocks 23

5.2 Impact of trade policies 29

5.3 Role of network connectivity 30

Chapter 6. Conclusions 34

References 36

Appendices 40