Executive summary  1

1 Climate analysis for Syria  4

1.1 Syria's present-day climate  4

1.2 Climate change projections for Syria  16

1.3 Climate data and methodology  36

2 Population scenarios for Syria  41

2.1 Background to our population scenarios  41

2.2 National population scenarios through 2045  46

2.3 Subnational population scenarios through 2045  52

3 Water in Syria: supply, demand, quality and governance  60

3.1 Supply and demand estimates  60

3.2 Water governance and infrastructure  70

3.3 Scenarios of future urban demand  77

3.4 Climate change risks to municipal water supplies and infrastructure  82

4 Electricity in Syria: capacity, supply and demand  84

4.1 Existing electricity generation capacity and supply  84

4.2 Plans for electricity sector investments  87

4.3 Electricity demand: current and future scenarios  87

4.4 Climate and financial risks to the electricity sector  93

References  94