Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgments 2

Executive Summary 4

Introduction 5

Defining AGI and Assessing Its Prospects 6

China's AI Vision and AGI's Role Within It 7

Is China Pursuing AGI? 8

AGI and Mechanisms of Geopolitical Power and Influence 10

Boosted Economic Growth and Productive Capacity 10

Consolidated Influence over the Global Information Environment 11

New Military Capabilities 12

Large-Scale Misalignment or Loss of Control 13

Downstream Political Effects 14

Geopolitical Choices Across the Phases of AGI Development 15

Both States Are Pursuing AGI 15

One State Is on the Cusp of AGI 16

One State Possesses AGI While the Other Does Not 17

Both States Have AGI 18

Phases Could Blur Together 18

Implications and Recommendations 19

Conclusion 21

Figure 1. Wildly Divergent Possibilities for AGI's Economic Impact 11