Executive Summary v

Acronyms vi

Glossary viii

Chapter 1. Introduction 1

Chapter 2. Lessons from Past Accession Rounds 3

  A. Benchmarking Current Candidates against Past Accessions 3

  B. Sizable but Heterogeneous Gains from EU Accession 4

Chapter 3. Accession Effects and Channels 9

  A. Potential Accession Gains Are Sizable 9

  B. A Closer Look at Capital and Labor Dynamics 13

Chapter 4. Policies to Make the Most of EU Accession 18

  A. Governance as a Cross-Cutting Priority 18

  B. Mobilizing Capital and Supporting Investment 20

  C. Strengthening Human Capital and Labor Markets 22

  D. Innovation, Competition, and Efficient Resource Allocation 24

  E. Maximizing the Integration Payoff 26

Chapter 5. Conclusion 28

Annex 1. Macroeconomic and Policy Gaps 30

Annex 2. Income Gains across Different EU Accession Rounds 31

Annex 3. Dynamic Model of Investment and Capital 32

Annex 4. Push and Pull Factors Driving Migration Intentions 37

Annex 5. Labor Market and Migration Model 40

Annex 6. Causal Discovery Model of Productivity 42

References 44