INTRODUCTION 2

FINDINGS SUMMARY 3

METHODOLOGY 4

ANALYSIS 5

CONCEPTUALIZING LIMITED NUCLEAR ATTACK 5

THE NORTH KOREA LNA RISK: INTENT AND CAPABILITY 6

PREPARING FOR LIMITED NUCLEAR ATTACKS BY NORTH KOREA 8

KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 10

APPENDIX 15

APPENDIX A: BIASES RELATED TO LIMITED NUCLEAR ATTACKS 15

APPENDIX B: SUPPLEMENTAL RECOMMENDATIONS 19

APPENDIX C: KEY REFERENCES 21

APPENDIX D: GUARDIAN TIGER III TTX SUMMARY AND KEY TAKEAWAYS 25

APPENDIX E: LIST OF ACRONYMS 36

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 37

ABOUT THE AUTHORS 38