Title page 1

Contents 1

Executive summary 1

1. The EU is running far behind the US and China in AI compute infrastructure 2

2. Does having AI compute capacity located in the EU matter? 4

3. The EU's AI supply-side approach 6

4. What constrains the build-out of AI compute in the EU? 9

5. Global AI compute capacity 12

6. What should Europe do about its AI compute shortfall? 14

References 16

Table 1. AI compute forecast 2025-2031 (in GW and percent) 4

Figure 1. Number of notable AI models by country, 2025 2

Figure 2. Global AI chip sales by cumulative compute capacity (H100e) 3