목차
Introduction 1
Scenario 1 – Better burden-sharing 3
Key characteristics 3
US military support to Ukraine 3
China and Russia policy 4
EU-NATO 5
US military contribution to NATO 5
European contributions to NATO 6
The defence industry and the transatlantic arms trade 6
Scenario 2 – Transactional security 7
Key characteristics 7
US military support to Ukraine 7
China and Russia policy 8
EU-NATO 8
US military contribution to NATO 9
European contributions to NATO 9
The defence industry and the transatlantic arms trade 10
Scenario 3 – Partial US disengagement 11
Key characteristics 11
US military support to Ukraine 11
China and Russia policy 11
EU-NATO 12
US military contribution to NATO 12
European contributions to NATO 13
The defence industry and the transatlantic arms trade 14
Scenario 4 – US Leaving NATO 15
Key characteristics 15
US military support to Ukraine 15
China and Russia policy 15
EU-NATO 16
US military contribution to NATO 16
European contributions to NATO 17
The defence industry and the transatlantic arms trade 17
The consequences of the scenarios 19
Scenario 1 – Better burden-sharing 19
Scenario 2 – Transactional security 20
Scenario 3 – Partial US disengagement 20
Scenario 4 – US leaving NATO 21
