목차
Abbreviations iv
Executive summary 1
1. Background 2
2. Methods 3
3. Key drivers of change 5
3.1 Inequalities in access to healthcare 6
International migration and travel 6
Climate change 6
New distribution of wealth and influence 7
Impact of ageing populations 7
New modes of learning and communication 7
Data collection, security, analysis and artificial intelligence 8
Urbanisation globally and in the EU 8
Pressure on natural resources and ecologies 8
Antimicrobial resistance 9
4. Interactions between key drivers 10
5. Exploring future threat scenarios 14
Scenario I – A united EU in a polycrisis world 16
Scenario II – Building back nature 17
Scenario III – Divide and prejudice 17
Scenario IV – Public health in private hands 18
Scenario V – Urban dominion and digital society 19
Scenario VI – A patchwork society 19
6. Back-casting for actions to take 21
7. Wind-tunnelling of strategic actions 23
8. Conclusions and potential implications 25
Strengthening external communications and outreach 25
Further development of data expertise and best practice 25
Budgeting for and creating cross-organisation working groups and teams 26
Engaging with localised priority populations 26
Valuing international institutional cooperation 26
References 27
Annex 1. Acknowledgements 29
Figures
Figure 1. Strategic foresight cycle 2
Figure 2. Interconnections between key drivers of change 11
Figure 3. Mapping of driver trajectory interactions 13
Figure 4. Back-casting process for each threat scenario 21
Tables
Table 1. Megatrends with their identified macro-drivers 5
Table 2. Macro-driver trajectories and scenarios 14
Table 3. Summary of the assessments of the strategic actions 23
