목차
Executive summary 1
Abbreviations 2
Introduction 3
The moving pieces: Major changes in domestic politics and international assistance 5
1. Domestic political developments 6
2. Changes in patterns of foreign assistance 14
Sketching scenarios: Exploring Somalia’s near-term future 21
Scenario A: Elite capture (status quo) 22
Scenario B: Inclusive state building 23
Scenario C: Towards chaos 24
Scenario D: Standing alone 25
Looking for stability: What role is there for the EU and its member states? 26
1. Prioritize genuinely inclusive political processes and outcomes as key conditions for EU assistance, particularly budget support 29
2. Strengthen support for entities that act as watchdogs against elites’ predatory behaviour 31
3. Strengthen mitigation measures to prevent aid from being instrumentalized by elites 33
4. Kick-start reflections on potential fundamental adjustments to the approach of the EU and its international partners in Somalia 35
