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THE “WINTER WAR” IN UKRAINE 4
TYING COMBAT TO ATTACKS ON UKRAINIAN CIVIL TARGETS 4
RUSSIAN REALITIES VERSUS THE LAWS OF WAR 5
THE “WINTER WAR” BETWEEN THE WEST AND RUSSIA IN ECONOMICS, POLITICS, AND ENERGY 6
WAR WITHOUT COMBAT 6
THE BROADER FORMS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL WARFARE 7
Figure One: Major Shifts in Russian Trade Patterns Caused 8
by the Economic War over the Ukraine 8
THE ENERGY WAR AS AN INDICATOR OF THE SERIOUSNESS OF ECONOMIC WARFARE 9
Figure Two: The Impact of Russian Actions on Gas Supplies11
and World Energy Princes - Part One 11
Figure Two: The Impact of Russian Actions on Energy Exports 12
and World Energy Prices – Part Two 12
THE “WINTER WAR” IN CONVENTIONAL FORCE MODERNIZATION AND BUILD-UPS BY THE U.S., NATO, AND RUSSIA 13
PUTTING THE CONVENTIONAL MILITARY BALANCE IN PERSPECTIVE 14
Figure Three: The Military Balance in 2021- Part One 16
Figure Three: The Military Balance in 2021- Part Two 17
THE UKRAINE WAR AND THE CONVENTIONAL ARMS RACE 17
THE “WINTER WAR” IN PRECISION STRIKE CAPABILITIES, AIR/MISSILE DEFENSE, AND EMERGING/DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES 20
THE “WINTER WAR” IN RUSSIA, US AND WESTERN, AND CHINESE NUCLEAR FORCES 21
Figure Four: Estimate of Total World 23
Nuclear Weapons Holding by Country 23
Figure Five: Russian, and Chinese Nuclear Modernization 24
Figure Six: U.S. Nuclear Modernization – Part One25
Figure Six: U.S. Nuclear Modernization – Part Two26
THE “WINTER WAR” IN CHINA: FROM COOPERATION AND COMPETITION TO CONFRONTATION AND ACTIVE WAR PLANNING 27
THE ROLE OF CHINA IN THE NEW U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY 27
GROWING CHINESE TIES TO RUSSIA? 28
CHINA’S MILITARY BUILD-UP 29
GUESSING AT THE FUTURE 31
Figure Seven: The Massive Increases in Chinese Military Spending 34
Figure Eight: U.S. Navy Estimate of Chinese Combat 35
Shipbuilding Relative to U.S. Navy 35
Figure Nine: Japanese MOD Estimate of the Military Forces 36
in the Western Pacific and Taiwan in 2022 36
Figure Ten: Chinese Deployment of Advanced Modern Submarines, Surface Ships, and 4th and 5th Generation
Aircraft 37
THE “WINTER WAR” IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF 38
Figure Eleven: Major Terrorist Groups in Africa and the Middle East 39
THE “WINTER WAR” IN ASIA AND THE KOREAS 40
Figure Twelve: Developments in the Korean Military Balance 41
THE “WINTER WARS” IN GRAY AREA, SPOILER, AND PROXY CAMPAIGNS 42
THE “WINTER WAR” IN FRAGILE, DIVIDED, AUTHORITARIAN, AND UNDEVELOPED STATES, AND AGAINST TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM 42
Figure Thirteen: World Bank List of Fragile States 45
and Conflict Situations in 2022 45
Figure Fourteen: START Estimate of Trends in Global Terrorism: 1970-2020 46
Figure Fifteen: The Growing Global Threat from 47
Population Pressure: 1950-2020 47
FROM PEACE, “GLOBALISM,” AND A “GLOBAL VILLAGE” TO A WORLD FILLED WITH GLOBAL TENSIONS AND WARFARE 48
