□ 첫째, 아동세액공제 확대는 월별 현금 지급 형태로 이루어졌으며, 특히 저소득층 가정에게 의미 있는 소득 증대를 제공함. 분석 결과, 가정의 생활 안정과 아동 복지 향상에 기여했음을 시사함.
□ 둘째, 인종과 소득 수준에 따라 지출 패턴의 차이가 두드러짐. 흑인과 히스패닉 가구는 백인 가구에 비해 CTC를 자녀 관련 지출에 더 많이 활용했으며, 특히 저소득 가구일수록 의류, 보육, 교육 용품 등의 항목에 지출이 집중됨.
□ 셋째, 이 연구는 실제 소비 데이터 기반의 계량 분석을 통해 보다 정확한 정책 효과를 측정했다는 점에서 의의가 있음. 특히 자녀 복지와 직결된 소비 항목의 증가는 소득 지원 정책이 아동 발달에 긍정적인 영향을 줄 수 있음을 시사하며, 향후 복지정책 설계에 중요한 근거를 제공함.
목차
Title page 1
Contents 1
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 3
2. Background 5
3. Data and estimation strategy 10
4. Results 17
5. Conclusion 26
Reference 29
Appendix A. Spending Category Definitions and CE Interview Questions 36
Appendix B. Descriptive results 40
Appendix C. Supplementary results 42
Tables 13
Table 1. Treatment months in reference quarter by interview month 13
Table 2. Imputed Value of the Advanced Child Tax Credit Payment Eligibility for Qualifying Households 14
Table 3. Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter (3-month period) across major expenditure... 20
Table 4. Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter (3-month period) across child-related goods... 22
Table 5. Estimated effects on spending across major expenditure categories of a $100 increase in the CTC payments by race/ethnicity of reference person 23
Table 6. Estimated effects on child-related spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter (3-month period) by race/ethnicity... 24
Figures 7
Figure 1. Child Tax Credit as a Function of AGI and Household Size 7
Figure 2. Quarterly CTC Income for Different Household Types by Child Age and Interview Month 13
Figure 3. Consumer Price Index Rebased to January of the Respective Year 16
Figure 4. Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter (3-month period) for major expenditure... 18
Figure 5. Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter (3-month period) across child-related expenditure... 19
Figure 6. Results from placebo tests: Estimated effects of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter (3-month period) in 2019 26
Appendix Tables 36
Appendix Table A1. Major Expenditure Categories 36
Appendix Table A2. Child-related Expenditure Categories 36
Appendix Table A3. Rates of reported receipt and use of the advanced CTC payment 39
Appendix Table B1. Change in spending between pre and post for households with children (naïve first difference) 41
Appendix Table C1. Placebo Test, Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter across expenditure... 43
Appendix Table C2. Placebo Test, Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter across expenditure... 44
Appendix Table C3. Treatment on treated results, Estimated effects on spending of a $100 increase in CTC payments during the reference quarter across expenditure... 46
Appendix Figures 42
Figure C1. Average three-month total expenditures by interview year and month among households with children who would be eligible for the ARPA CTC 42
