목차
Title page 1
Contents 3
Abstract 2
List of abbreviations 4
Executive Summary 5
1. Introduction 10
2. Tracking the Russian military build-up 17
3. Existing stocks in European military capabilities 28
4. What do European nations order? The Kiel Military Procurement Tracker 32
4.1. Germany 35
4.2. United Kingdom 43
4.3. Poland 49
4.4. France 52
5. Understanding domestic and foreign purchases 55
5.1. Insights from the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker 56
5.2. Cross-checking import dependency with Comtrade, NATO and SIPRI data 62
5.3. Digging further into the foreign purchases puzzle: how big is Europe's dependency on US imports? 63
6. From procurement to effective capacities: assessing delivery delays, production capacity, and development times for new systems 66
6.1. Expected delivery dates in ordered equipment from the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker 66
6.2. Gradually growing production capacity 70
6.3. Developing new technologies to lead 73
7. European Readiness 2030: What is needed? 77
8. Conclusions 86
References 92
Annex A1: European stocks of key weapon systems over time 95
Annex A2: Kiel Military Procurement Tracker orders for land or naval forces and country summary of procurement of weapons 99
Annex A3: European military equipment imports from the US 103
Annex A4: Increase in defence production, data sources 107
Tables 19
Table 2.1. Russian quarterly production of key weapons systems 19
Table 3.1. German, French, British, and Polish Arms Stocks 1992-2024 29
Table 4.4.1. France orders by weapon types from 2020 to 2025 (units) 54
Table 6.1. Increase in production of selected military equipment since 2022 71
Table 6.2. Deliveries and orders for military combat aircrafts/fighter jets, 2020-2024 72
Table 6.3. Employment numbers for major European companies in 2021-2024 73
Table 6.4. Time horizons for the development and production of weapon systems 74
Table 7.1. Russian force generation and European production targets (25 brigades: minimum scenario) 81
Table 7.2. Russian force generation and European production targets (50 brigades: maximum scenario) 82
Table 8.1. Comparison between current production, procurement, and production needed for main traditional military equipment 88
Table 8.2. Bottom-up estimation for the cost of additional tank, SP howitzers and IFV equipment. Production targets in units of equipment, cost estimates in EUR billion 90
Figures 11
Figure 1.1. Gross domestic product in purchasing power parity 11
Figure 1.2. Defence spending in military PPP USD billion for main NATO countries, Ukraine and Russia in 2024 12
Figure 1.3. Total area of Ukraine occupied by Russia, 2022-2025 (square kilometers) 13
Figure 1.4. Defence spending in NATO Europe (left scale) and spending on military equipment (right scale) in percent of GDP 14
Figure 1.5. Average annual expenditure on military procurement. USD billion 2015 prices 15
Figure 2.1. Frontline systems: tanks (MBT) and other armoured vehicles (IFV/APC/IMV), estimated monthly production 20
Figure 2.2. Frontline systems: artillery and air defence, estimated monthly production 21
Figure 2.3. Lancet long-range loitering munition production and use 22
Figure 3.1. Number of (commercial) satellites in low Earth orbit, Starlink vs main European competitors 31
Figure 3.2. Number of military satellites deployed by country in 2024 31
Figure 4.1. Average share of defence equipment expenditure of total defence expenditure for NATO countries 32
Figure 4.1.1. Germany total military orders, January 2020-April 2025 36
Figure 4.1.1a. Germany total military orders, 2020-2025, twelve-month windows beginning in March 37
Figure 4.1.2. Germany total military orders by weapon category, January 2020-April 2025 39
Figure 4.1.3. Germany shift in procurement priorities since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war 39
Figure 4.1.4. Impact of orders of new weapons and commitments to Ukraine on the stock of six major weapon categories in Germany 40
Figure 4.1.5. Germany total military orders by budgetary fund, January 2020-April 2025 41
Figure 4.1.6. Germany total military orders by budgetary fund overview, January 2020-April 2025 42
Figure 4.2.1. UK total military orders, January 2020-April 2025 44
Figure 4.2.1a. UK total military orders, 2020-2025, twelve-month windows beginning in March 45
Figure 4.2.2. UK total military orders by weapon category, January 2020-April 2025 47
Figure 4.2.3. UK shift in procurement priorities since the start of the Russia Ukraine war 47
Figure 4.2.4. UK military orders for drones by month, January 2020-April 2025 48
Figure 4.2.5. UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine total military orders by weapon category, January 2020-April 2025 49
Figure 4.3.1. Polish defence procurement by equipment category 50
Figure 4.3.2. Polish total military orders, 2019-2025, twelve-month windows beginning in January 2019 51
Figure 4.3.3. Total military orders by weapon category, January 2020-May 2025 51
Figure 4.3.4. Poland shift in procurement priorities since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war 52
Figure 4.5. Country summary procurement value from January 2020 to April 2025 55
Figure 5.1.1. Germany total military orders by country of origin of the company which received the order, January 2020-April 2025 57
Figure 5.1.2. Germany share of total military orders by country of origin of the company which received the order, January 2020-April 2025 58
Figure 5.1.3. UK total military orders by country of origin of the company which received the order, January 2020-February 2025 59
Figure 5.1.4. UK share of total military orders by country of origin of the company which received the order, January 2020-April 2025 60
Figure 5.1.5. Poland total military orders by country of origin of the company which received the order, January 2019-May 2025 61
Figure 5.1.6. Poland share of total military orders by country of origin of the company which received the order, January 2019-May 2025 61
Figure 5.2.1. Share of military equipment imports by origin for different countries between 2021 and 2024 (left) and share of imports to total equipment spending (right) 62
Figure 5.2.2. Major conventional arms imports by origin 2021-2024, SIPRI data 63
Figure 5.3.1. Arms imports measured in TIV million for the EU by origin 64
Figure 5.3.2. Value of FMS notified potential sales by country and year 65
Figure 6.1.1. Germany quarterly estimate of the number of years needed to deliver the ordered equipment where available, January 2020-April 2025 67
Figure 6.1.2. Germany proportion of ordered items without a latest expected delivery date, three-month moving window (January 2020-April 2025) 68
Figure 6.1.3. UK quarterly estimate of the number of years needed to deliver the ordered equipment where available, January 2020-April 2025 69
Figure 6.1.4. UK proportion of ordered items without a latest expected delivery date, three-month moving window (January 2020-April 2025) 70
Figure 6.3.1. Stock price evolution of Dassault and Chengdu companies. May 1st = 100 75
Figure 7.1. Possible configuration of 160km air defence systems across strategic sites in European NATO countries 84
Annex Tables 95
Table A1.1. Germany's stocks of key weapon systems over time 95
Table A1.2. France's stocks of key weapon systems over time 96
Table A1.3. United Kingdom's stocks of key weapon systems over time 97
Table A1.4. Poland's stocks of key weapon systems over time 98
Table A2.1/Table A2.5. Country summary of procurement of weapon systems from 2020 to 2025 102
Table A4.1. Increase in production per year of military equipment since 2022, data sources 107
Annex Figures 99
Figure A2.1. Germany military orders for land forces by month, January 2020-April 2025 99
Figure A2.2. UK military orders for land forces by month, January 2020-April 2025 100
Figure A2.3. Poland military orders for land forces by month, January 2019-May 2025 100
Figure A2.4. UK military orders for the navy by month, January 2020-April 2025 101
Figure A3.1. Value of US arms transferred by exporting programme and year. USD billion 103
Figure A3.2. Value of military equipment transferred through FMF program in Poland and Israel. USD billion 104
Figure A3.3. Value of military equipment transferred through FMS program by country. USD billion 105
Figure A3.4. Arms imports from the US. TIV million 106
