목차
Title page 1
Contents 5
Foreword 4
Basic statistics of the European Union, 2024 8
Basic statistics of the euro area, 2024 9
Executive summary 10
1. Implementing prudent macroeconomic policies 18
1.1. Economic recovery has been slow amid high uncertainty 19
1.1.1. Subdued domestic demand weighs on growth 19
1.1.2. Tight labour markets are gradually easing 21
1.1.3. Headline inflation has declined, but services inflation remains elevated 23
1.1.4. Growth is projected to strengthen gradually, but uncertainty is high 24
1.2. Monetary policy is loosening amid elevated financial stability risks 27
1.2.1. The monetary policy stance has been relaxed 27
1.2.2. Monetary policy should remain vigilant 28
1.2.3. Risks to financial stability are building up in the non-bank sector 29
1.3. Fiscal policy should be prudent 31
1.3.1. Prudent fiscal policy is needed to reduce high debt levels 31
1.3.2. The NGEU spending is executed more slowly than planned 33
1.3.3. Implementation of the new governance framework should be strengthened 34
1.3.4. Empowered fiscal councils and redesigned sanctions could improve compliance 39
References 42
2. Repurposing the EU budget for new challenges 45
2.1. The EU budget remains limited 46
2.1.1. Transition periods and built-in caps could help contain the cost of enlargement 47
2.2. EU spending should become more targeted 48
2.2.1. Cohesion policy needs a sharper focus and better prioritisation of challenges 48
2.2.2. The experience with the Recovery and Resilience Facility is mixed 51
2.2.3. Spending on agriculture should be rationalised 52
2.3. Protecting the EU budget by strengthening the anti-corruption framework 55
References 62
3. Strengthening electricity markets 67
3.1. Lowering electricity costs is a key challenge 68
3.2. Market integration has helped coping with the energy crisis 68
3.3. Well-functioning and integrated markets are important for electrification 70
3.4. Towards a more integrated market for electricity 74
3.4.1. Enhancing competition to lower electricity costs 74
3.4.2. Strengthening markets for low-carbon energy sources 77
3.4.3. Bolstering investment in electricity grids 79
References 83
4. Strengthening productivity and the Single Market 86
4.1. Strengthening productivity remains a key challenge 87
4.2. Productivity growth has been weak 87
4.3. The Single Market is key for productivity 92
4.4. Deepening the Single Market 97
4.4.1. Reducing the regulatory burden 97
4.4.2. Bolstering market integration of services 99
4.4.3. Removing internal market barriers in retail 103
4.4.4. Lowering barriers to professional services 105
4.4.5. Further liberalising network sectors 106
4.4.6. Strengthening Single Market law and competition enforcement 108
4.5. Towards more integrated financial markets 109
4.5.1. Deepening capital markets 109
4.5.2. Completing the Banking Union 113
4.6. Boosting labour mobility 114
4.7. Supporting innovation 116
4.7.1. Creating the right framework conditions for innovative companies 116
4.7.2. Improving effectiveness of innovation policy 119
4.7.3. Ensuring industrial policy does not harm the Single Market 121
References 126
Tables 6
Table 1. Growth is projected to strengthen 12
Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections for the euro area 25
Table 1.2. Macroeconomic indicators and projections for the European Union 26
Table 1.3. Events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 26
Table 1.4. Euro area fiscal effort under the new rules 38
Table 1.5. Past recommendations on macroeconomic policies 40
Table 1.6. Main findings and recommendations (key recommendations in bold) 41
Table 2.1. Past recommendations on agricultural and anti-corruption policies 60
Table 2.2. Main findings and recommendations (key recommendations in bold) 61
Table 3.1. Past recommendations on energy 82
Table 3.2. Main findings and recommendations (key recommendations in bold) 82
Table 4.1. Past recommendations on productivity and the Single Market 123
Table 4.2. Main findings and recommendations (key recommendations in bold) 125
Figures 6
Figure 1. Inflation in services remains elevated 11
Figure 2. Common Agricultural Policy spending mainly goes to direct payments 13
Figure 3. Productivity growth has been weak 14
Figure 1.1. The GDP growth rebound was slow amid weak confidence 19
Figure 1.2. Investment is weak 20
Figure 1.3. The current account balance returned to surplus 21
Figure 1.4. The real wage gap is closing 22
Figure 1.5. The Beveridge curve suggests improved labour matching 23
Figure 1.6. Inflation is gradually decreasing 24
Figure 1.7. The monetary policy stance has been relaxed amid increased uncertainty 27
Figure 1.8. Cost of borrowing has decreased 28
Figure 1.9. Inflation expectations have abated 29
Figure 1.10. The banking sector is well capitalised on aggregate 30
Figure 1.11. House prices have stabilised in several countries 31
Figure 1.12. The fiscal stance is projected to tighten 32
Figure 1.13. Public debt has decreased in most countries, but it remains high 33
Figure 1.14. Sovereign borrowing costs remain elevated 34
Figure 1.15. MTFSPs for some countries imply less consolidation than the prior guidance 37
Figure 1.16. Compliance with fiscal rules has been partial 39
Figure 1.17. The IFIs vary in their capacity 40
Figure 2.1. The distribution of net recipients has remained broadly unchanged 46
Figure 2.2. Targeting of cohesion policy spending is improving but could be further strengthened 48
Figure 2.3. What does Cohesion Policy finance? 50
Figure 2.4. Absorption of cohesion funds is slow 52
Figure 2.5. Income support through direct payments still dominates CAP expenditure 53
Figure 2.6. Corruption perception across EU countries varies but could be reduced further 56
Figure 2.7. There is scope to strengthen Anti-Money Laundering measures 58
Figure 3.1. Russian fossil fuel imports were replaced quickly 68
Figure 3.2. Wholesale gas prices remain relatively high 69
Figure 3.3. High gas prices translate into higher electricity prices 69
Figure 3.4. Electricity trade helps meeting growing electricity demand 71
Figure 3.5. Solar and wind potential differ across countries 73
Figure 3.6. Competition in electricity markets is low in many EU countries 74
Figure 3.7. Retail prices for electricity differ across EU countries 75
Figure 3.8. Regulated and fixed price contracts are frequent 75
Figure 3.9. Taxes and levies account for a high share of retail electricity costs 76
Figure 3.10. Electricity taxation is high compared to fossil fuel taxation 76
Figure 3.11. The rollout of smart meters is behind schedule in many EU countries 77
Figure 3.12. Renewable subsidies make generation non-responsive to price changes 78
Figure 3.13. Cross-border grid connections are limited 81
Figure 4.1. Productivity growth has lagged behind 87
Figure 4.2. Productivity growth has slowed 88
Figure 4.3. The productivity slowdown has been broad based across sectors 89
Figure 4.4. Investment in business R&D and information technologies is relatively low 90
Figure 4.5. Productivity has rebounded slowly following economic shocks 91
Figure 4.6. Business dynamism has weakened 92
Figure 4.7. European companies are on average smaller than those in the United States 98
Figure 4.8. Intra-EU trade in services remains relatively low 100
Figure 4.9. Market integration is lower in more regulated services sectors 101
Figure 4.10. Reporting of internal market barriers in services is low 102
Figure 4.11. Regulatory barriers in retail are high 103
Figure 4.12. Regulatory restrictions differ across EU countries 104
Figure 4.13. Stringency of professional services regulations remains high for certain categories 105
Figure 4.14. Progress in removing prior checks on qualifications is slow 106
Figure 4.15. The rail market is still dominated by national incumbents 107
Figure 4.16. Capital markets remain relatively underdeveloped 110
Figure 4.17. Private funded pensions systems remain underdeveloped in most EU countries 111
Figure 4.18. Labour force growth depends largely on migration 115
Figure 4.19. The science base remains strong while innovation is weak 117
Figure 4.20. Venture capital remains relatively low 118
Figure 4.21. EU-level public R&D spending is relatively low 120
Boxes 7
Box 1.1. New EU fiscal rules 35
Box 1.2. A preliminary assessment of the medium-term fiscal structural plans 36
Box 2.1. Cohesion policy in the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework 49
Box 2.2. The EU's Common Agricultural Policy between 2023 and 2027 54
Box 3.1. Setting of wholesale electricity prices 70
Box 3.2. The EU's electricity wholesale market 72
Box 3.3. Adapting Regulatory Frameworks to the Characteristics of Renewable Energy 80
Box 4.1. The European Commission's roadmap for productivity and competitiveness 95
Box 4.2. Private-funded pension systems in Denmark and Sweden 111
Box 4.3. Industrial policy design 122
