목차
Title page 1
Contents 4
Acknowledgements 2
Findings, policy implications and recommendations 6
Project scope and focus 6
Caveats and constraints 8
Findings and recommendations on sentiment in Australia 8
Findings and recommendations on perceptions of crises in the Taiwan Strait 10
Introduction: The Taiwan Strait in Australian discourse 14
Contours of a crisis 14
Australia's responses to previous crises in the Taiwan Strait (1954, 1958 and 1996) 17
Australia's one-China policy 18
Australia's current relationship with the ROC 19
Australian interests in the Taiwan Strait 20
Australian sentiment towards crises in the Taiwan Strait 25
Australian policy parameters and impacts 30
Perceptions of cross-strait relations within Australian stakeholder groups 32
State, territory and municipal governments 32
University sector 33
Industry sector 33
Community sector 34
Risk management within Australian stakeholder groups 35
Government sector 35
Industry and economic risk exposure 36
Taiwanese and Chinese communities 36
The impacts of a cross-strait crisis on communities 38
Taiwanese communities 38
Chinese communities 39
Diaspora identity politics and national-security implications 40
The wider Australian community 40
Information sources and the manipulation of information during a crisis 42
Government messaging 42
Traditional and social media 43
Chinese-language media in Australia 44
Information warfare and the risks of political disengagement 45
Implications for government 45
Next steps 46
Appendix 1: Scope and methodology 47
Appendix 2: Joint Communique of the Australian Government and the Government of the People's Republic of China Concerning the Establishment... 51
Appendix 3: Detailed sentiment analysis 52
Taiwan in the 2024 Australian information environment 57
Taiwan in the 2023 Australian information environment 59
Taiwan in the 2022 Australian information environment 61
Taiwan in the 2021 Australian information environment 63
Taiwan in the 2020 Australian information environment 65
A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2024 Australian information environment 67
A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2023 Australian information environment 68
A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2022 Australian information environment 69
A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2021 Australian information environment 70
A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2020 Australian information environment 70
Taiwan and military drills in 2024 71
Taiwan and military drills in 2023 73
Taiwan and military drills in 2022 74
China's diplomatic presence in Australia's Taiwan commentary in 2024 75
Taiwan in Australia's AUKUS commentary 77
The Covid-19 pandemic (March 2020-May 2023) 78
The World Health Assembly's rejection of Taiwan's request for observer status (May 2023) 80
Australian parliamentary visits to Taiwan (December 2022, September 2023 and April 2024) 82
Taiwan's application to join the CPTPP (November 2020) 84
Taiwan's 'nine in one' local elections (26 November 2022) 85
Taiwan's national elections (January 2024) 87
The earthquake in eastern Taiwan (April 2024) 88
The inauguration of President Lai Ching-te (20 May 2024) 90
Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China Summit in Taiwan (July 2024) 92
Australian Senate passes motion on UNGA Resolution 2758 (August 2024) 93
Election of Donald Trump as US President (November 2024) 94
Australian Financial Review Taiwan op-ed saga (January 2025) 95
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in the (January-March) 2025 Australian information environment 96
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in the 2024 Australian information environment 97
US wanting a 'Taiwan commitment' from Australia (July 2025) 98
Notes 99
Acronyms and abbreviations 100
Figures 14
Figure 1. Value of trade through the Taiwan Strait 14
Figure 2. The risk of a Taiwan War to global GDP 16
Figure 3. Maritime traffic through the Taiwan Strait 21
Figure 4. Australia's imports through the Taiwan Strait 23
Figure 5. Mentions of 'Taiwan' in Australian media, 2020 to 2024 25
Figure 6. Mentions of 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in Australian media, 2020 to 2024 26
Figure 7. Mentions of 'Taiwan' in Australian media, 1 July to 31 August 2022 (includes Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan) 26
Figure 8. Mentions of 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in Australian media, 1 July to 31 August 2022 (includes Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan) 27
Figure 9. Mentions of 'Taiwan' in Australian media, 2024 27
Figure 10. Mentions of 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in Australian media, 2024 28
Figure 11. Mentions 57
Figure 12. Most engaged content on X 58
Figure 13. Top keywords and entities 58
Figure 14. Top keyword sentiments 58
Figure 15. Taiwan in the 2023 Australian information environment: mentions 59
Figure 16. Most engaged content on X: Taiwan (2023) 60
Figure 17. Top keywords and entities 60
Figure 18. Top keyword sentiments 60
Figure 19. Taiwan in the 2022 Australian information environment: mentions 61
Figure 20. Most engaged content on X 62
Figure 21. Top keywords and entities 62
Figure 22. Top keyword sentiments 62
Figure 23. Taiwan in the 2021 Australian information environment: mentions 63
Figure 24. Most engaged content on X 64
Figure 25. Top keywords and entities 64
Figure 26. Top keyword sentiments 64
Figure 27. Taiwan in the 2020 Australian information environment: mentions 65
Figure 28. Most engaged content on X 66
Figure 29. Top keywords and entities 66
Figure 30. Top keyword sentiments 66
Figure 31. Mentions 67
Figure 32. Most engaged content on X 67
Figure 33. Top keywords and entities 67
Figure 34. Top keyword sentiments 67
Figure 35. A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2023 Australian information environment: mentions 68
Figure 36. Most engaged content on X 68
Figure 37. Top keywords and entities 68
Figure 38. Top keyword sentiments 68
Figure 39. A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2022 Australian information environment: mentions 69
Figure 40. Most engaged content on X 69
Figure 41. Top keywords and entities 69
Figure 42. Top keyword sentiments 69
Figure 43. A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2021 Australian information environment: mentions 70
Figure 44. A 'Taiwan Strait crisis' in the 2020 Australian information environment: mentions 70
Figure 45. Taiwan and military drills in 2024: mentions 71
Figure 46. Most engaged content on X 72
Figure 47. Top keywords and entities 72
Figure 48. Top keyword sentiments 72
Figure 49. Taiwan and military drills in 2023: mentions 73
Figure 50. Most engaged content on X 73
Figure 51. Top keywords and entities 73
Figure 52. Top keyword sentiments 73
Figure 53. Taiwan and military drills in 2022: mentions 74
Figure 54. Most engaged content on X 74
Figure 55. Top keywords and entities 74
Figure 56. Top keyword sentiments 74
Figure 57. China's diplomatic presence in Australia's Taiwan commentary in 2024: mentions 75
Figure 58. Most engaged content on X 76
Figure 59. Top keywords and entities 76
Figure 60. Top Keywords Sentiment 76
Figure 61. Taiwan in Australia's AUKUS commentary: mentions 77
Figure 62. Most engaged content on X 77
Figure 63. Top keywords and entities 77
Figure 64. Top keyword sentiments 77
Figure 65. The Covid-19 pandemic (March 2020 - May 2023): mentions 78
Figure 66. Top keywords and entities 78
Figure 67. Top keyword sentiments 78
Figure 68. Pandemic: Year Two (1 March 2021 to 1 March 2022): mentions 78
Figure 69. Top keywords and entities 79
Figure 70. Top keyword sentiments 79
Figure 71. Pandemic: Year Three (1 March 2022 to 1 March 2023): mentions 79
Figure 72. Top keywords and entities 79
Figure 73. Top keyword sentiments 79
Figure 74. Mentions 80
Figure 75. Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (August 2022) 80
Figure 76. Most engaged content on X 81
Figure 77. Top keywords and entities 81
Figure 78. Top keyword sentiments 81
Figure 79. Australian parliamentary visit to Taiwan (December 2022): mentions 82
Figure 80. Top keywords and entities 82
Figure 81. Australian parliamentary visit to Taiwan (September 2023): mentions 82
Figure 82. Top keywords and entities 83
Figure 83. Australian parliamentary visit to Taiwan (April 2024): mentions 83
Figure 84. Top keywords and entities 84
Figure 85. Mentions 84
Figure 86. Top keywords and entities 84
Figure 87. Mentions 85
Figure 88. Top keywords and entities 86
Figure 89. Top keyword sentiments 86
Figure 90. Mentions 87
Figure 91. Most engaged content on X 87
Figure 92. Top keywords and entities 87
Figure 93. Top keyword sentiments 87
Figure 94. Mentions 88
Figure 95. Most engaged content on X 89
Figure 96. Top keywords and entities 89
Figure 97. Top keywords sentiments 89
Figure 98. Mentions 90
Figure 99. Most engaged content on X 91
Figure 100. Top keywords and entities 91
Figure 101. Top keyword sentiments 91
Figure 102. Mentions 92
Figure 103. Most engaged content on X 92
Figure 104. Top keywords and entities 92
Figure 105. Top keyword sentiments 92
Figure 106. Mentions 93
Figure 107. Most engaged content on X 93
Figure 108. Top keywords and entities 93
Figure 109. Top keyword sentiments 93
Figure 110. Mentions 94
Figure 111. Most engaged content on X 94
Figure 112. Top keywords and entities 95
Figure 113. Top keyword sentiments 95
Figure 114. Mentions 95
Figure 115. Most engaged content on X 95
Figure 116. Top keywords and entities 95
Figure 117. Top keyword sentiments 95
Figure 118. Mentions 96
Figure 119. Most engaged content on X 96
Figure 120. Top keywords and entities 96
Figure 121. Top keyword sentiments 96
Figure 122. Mentions 97
Figure 123. Most engaged content on X: 97
Figure 124. Top keywords and entities 97
Figure 125. Top keyword sentiments 97
Figure 126. Mentions 98
Figure 127. Most engaged content on X 98
Figure 128. Top keywords and entities 98
Figure 129. Top keyword sentiments 98
