목차
Title page 1
Contents 3
Introduction 4
Chapter 1: China's plans for Taiwan 5
China's leaders on Taiwan and unification 5
China's civil society's views on unification 6
China's military preparations 8
Chapter 2: China's military coercion 9
China's military coercion of Taiwan 9
China's military exercises around Taiwan 10
Tracker of China's military exercises around Taiwan 12
Chapter 3: War games: how might China seek to forcibly unify Taiwan? 18
Subversion 18
Quarantine 22
Blockade 25
Invasion 28
Chapter 4: How is Taiwan responding to China's aggression? 31
A (complicated) history of preparing for war 31
Civil-society views on identity and conflict 33
The government's approach to conflict and deterrence 37
Taiwan's military preparations 38
Chapter 5: Supporting Taiwan's preparedness 41
One-China policy vs the One-China principle 41
How the US and other countries support Taiwan's preparedness 42
Countries that challenge China's excessive claims in the Taiwan Strait 44
What more can be done to support Taiwan? 46
Conclusion 49
Notes 50
Acronyms and abbreviations 55
Tables 6
Table 1. PRC policy and strategy under successive leaders 6
Table 2. Summary of China's large-scale exercises since 2022 11
Table 3. Taiwan's 'Four Pillars of Peace' 37
Table 4. US arms transfers to Taiwan (1979 to 2024) 42
Table 5. Arms transfers to Taiwan (1979 to 2024) 43
Table 6. Taiwan Strait transits, by country 45
Figures 7
Figure 1. 'Unification with Taiwan should not be by force under any circumstances' 7
Figure 2. 'Do you support launching a unification war to take back Taiwan entirely?' 7
Figure 3. 'Do you agree that Taiwan should not be unified by force under any circumstances?' 7
Figure 4. China's military and paramilitary activities around Taiwan in 2024 10
Figure 5. Exclusion zones, August 2022 12
Figure 6. Joint Sword 2023 13
Figure 7. Joint Sword 2024A 14
Figure 8. Joint Sword 2024B 15
Figure 9. 2024 drills 16
Figure 10. Strait Thunder 2025A 17
Figure 11. Status quo vs independence vs unification 34
Figure 12. 2024 survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation 34
Figure 13. 2024 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Taiwan's Institute for National Defense 34
Figure 14. 2023 Brookings survey: 'Do you worry about a cross-strait war? 35
Figure 15. 2025 Global Views survey: 'Is war likely in the next three years?' 35
Figure 16. Willingness to defend Taiwan 35
Figure 17. Pew Research Center 2023 survey 36
Figure 18. National Chengchi University Election Study Center 2023 survey 36
Figure 19. Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation 2024 survey 36
