Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Abbreviations 10

Acknowledgements 11

Executive summary: Steadiness amid high uncertainty 12

1. Global trends and outlook 16

Key messages 16

Resilient growth amid high uncertainty 17

Elevated uncertainty and falling confidence 17

Risks to the global labour market outlook 19

Trends and outlook in access to employment 21

Unemployment and youth not in employment, education or training 21

Employment and labour force 23

Gender gaps in access to employment 24

Changing labour market prospects of youth and workers with advanced education 25

Employment quality 28

Trends in working poverty, informality and status in employment 28

Drivers of the slowdown in employment quality improvements 30

Productivity growth and labour incomes 32

References 35

2. Employment and social trends by region 38

Key messages 38

Africa 39

Labour market trends in Northern Africa 39

Labour market trends in sub-Saharan Africa 41

Prevalence of young people not in employment, education or training in Africa 41

Americas 42

Labour market trends in Latin America and the Caribbean 43

Labour market trends in Northern America 43

Regional labour migration policy to help address skills gaps in the Caribbean Community region 45

Arab States 46

Labour market trends in the Arab States 46

Dual-speed digital transition in the Arab States could widen inequalities 47

Asia and the Pacific 49

Labour market trends in Asia and the Pacific 49

The dual challenge of climate risk and greenhouse gas emissions in Asia and the Pacific and the implications for green job growth 53

Europe and Central Asia 54

Labour market trends in Europe and Central Asia 54

Ageing populations in Europe and Central Asia 56

References 58

3. Shifting patterns of trade and employment 62

Key messages 62

Introduction 63

Trends in trade, foreign direct investment and employment 63

Trends in international trade in a context of trade policy uncertainty 63

Dwindling foreign direct investment 65

Employment linked to foreign demand through global supply chains 67

Decent work in global supply chains 69

Shifting composition and regional patterns of trade and employment 70

The rise of services in international trade 71

Rising number of services jobs depending on foreign demand 73

Shifting regional patterns of trade 75

Rising trade among middle-income countries 75

Employment related to intraregional supply chains 76

Conclusion 77

References 78

Appendix A. Geographical regions and income groups of ILO modelled estimates 83

Appendix B. Estimation of the change in return to skilled and unskilled labour due to rising trade uncertainty 86

Tables 9

Table 1.1. Unemployment rate and number of unemployed by age, sex and country income group, 2024-27 22

Table 1.2. Labour force and labour force participation rate by country income group, 2024-27 23

Table 1.3. Type of employment as a share of total employment by sex and country income group, 2005-25 29

Table 2.1. Estimates and projections for employment, unemployment, the labour force, informal employment and working poverty,... 40

Table 2.2. Estimates and projections for employment, unemployment, the labour force, informal employment and working poverty,... 44

Table 2.3. Estimates and projections for employment, unemployment, the labour force, informal employment and working poverty,... 48

Table 2.4. Estimates and projections for employment, unemployment, the labour force, informal employment and working poverty,... 50

Table 2.5. Estimates and projections for employment, unemployment, the labour force and informal employment, Europe and Central Asia... 55

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Uncertainty indices, January 2010 to October 2025 17

Figure 1.2. Business and consumer confidence indicators, 2005-25 18

Figure 1.3. Job vacancies in 19 countries with available data, 2001-25 19

Figure 1.4. Share of youth not in employment, education or training by country income group, 2005-27 22

Figure 1.5. Employment growth by country income group, 2010-27 24

Figure 1.6. Gender gaps in selected labour market indicators by subregion, 2026 (percentage point difference in rates) 25

Figure 1.7. Youth unemployment rate by sex, education level and country income group, 2024 26

Figure 1.8. Youth unemployment rate in upper-middle- and high-income countries by education degree, 2005-24 27

Figure 1.9. Share of employment exposed to AI by age, educational attainment and country income group 28

Figure 1.10. Difference in employment distribution across economic activities, 2005-15 and 2015-25 31

Figure 1.11. Decomposition of changes in the global informality rate, 2005-15 and 2015-25 31

Figure 1.12. Decomposition of changes in the global share of employees in total employment, 2005-15 and 2015-25 32

Figure 1.13. Growth of GDP per worker by subregion, 2026 33

Figure 1.14. GDP growth and its decomposition by country income group, 2026 34

Figure 2.1. Share of youth (aged 15-24) not in employment, education or training, Africa and subregions, 2005-25 41

Figure 2.2. Net movement within CARICOM and GNI per capita by CARICOM Member State 45

Figure 2.3. Share of employment in Arab States with augmentation and automation potential from generative AI 49

Figure 2.4. Manufacturing as a share of total employment, selected regions, 2000-25 52

Figure 2.5. Impact of demography and the employment rate on average annual GDP growth in Europe and Central Asia by region, 2024-50 57

Figure 3.1. Trade in goods and services by country income group, 2000-26 66

Figure 3.2. Foreign direct investment inflows as a share of GDP by country income group, 2007-24 66

Figure 3.3. Share of employment linked to trade by region, 1995-2024 67

Figure 3.4. Employment linked to trade per region as a share of total employment across all regions, 1995-2024 68

Figure 3.5. Average incidence of employment characteristics in trade compared to non-trade-related employment by country income group, 2024 69

Figure 3.6. Trade in goods and services as a share of global GDP, 1990-2024 71

Figure 3.7. Exports of goods and services at constant prices by country income group, 2024 (2008 = 100) 72

Figure 3.8. Share of employment linked to foreign demand within sectors by country income group, 2024 73

Figure 3.9. Employment linked to foreign demand of output from manufacturing, market services and rest of economy as a share of total... 74

Figure 3.10. Global trade flows by value by country income group, 2005, 2015 and 2024 75

Figure 3.11. Regional Cooperation and Integration Index by region, 2006-22 76

Figure 3.12. Share of trade-related employment dependent on intraregional trade relations by region, 1995-2022 77

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Unemployment and public debt crises 20

Box 1.2. Estimation methodology for youth unemployment rates by sex and education 26

Box 1.3. Decomposing the change in the global incidence of employee status and informality 32

Box 3.1. Implications of trade uncertainty for labour incomes 64

Box 3.2. Estimating employment linked to foreign demand 68

Box 3.3. Digitally delivered services trade 71

Box Figures 7

Figure B1.1. Unemployment rate following a debt crisis (4 years before debt default = 100) 20

Figure B3.1.1. Average annual change in return to labour, relative to baseline, between 2025 and 2035 65

Figure B3.3.1. Total digitally delivered services exports by region, 2005-24 (2005 = 100) 72

Appendix Tables 9

Table A1. ILO geographical grouping of countries and territories 83

Table A2. Grouping of countries and territories by ILO subregion 84

Table A3. Grouping of countries and territories by income level 85