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Title page
Contents
Abstract 2
Acronyms/Glossary 4
Executive Summary 6
Ⅰ. Introduction 7
Ⅱ. The State of Global Economic Integration 8
Ⅲ. Transmission Channels 14
Ⅳ. The International Monetary System 19
Ⅴ. A Way Forward 25
Annex 1. Debt Reduction as Self-insurance 29
Annex 2. Risks of Fragmentation of the Global Payment System 30
Annex 3. Multilateral and Plurilateral Initiatives to Advance the Trade Agenda 31
Annex 4: International Frameworks for Consideration of Policy Measures Imposed for Security Reasons 33
References 34
Figure 1. Trade Openness, 1870-2021 8
Figure 2. Global Flows of Goods, Services and Finance 10
Figure 3. Global Production Structure: Selected Commodities, 2020 10
Figure 4. The Global Economic System, 1995 vs. 2019 11
Figure 5. Bilateral Goods Trade by Development Status, 1990-2021 11
Figure 6. Geopolitical Risks, Military Conflicts and Trade Policy Uncertainty 13
Figure 7. Trade Restrictions Imposed 13
Figure 8. National Security Mentioned in IMF AREAER Reports 13
Figure 9. Mentions of Key Terms in Corporate Presentations 13
Figure 10. Growth of GDP and Trade, 1995-2014 14
Figure 11. Creditor Base for the PRGT-eligible countries: 1996 vs. 2020 21
Figure 12. Role of Major Currencies in the International Monetary System 22
Figure 13. U.S. Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves and the US Dollar Index, 1999-2022:Q2 23
Figure 14. Central Banks' Demand for Gold and Foreign Holdings of US Treasury Securities 23
Figure 15. Evolution of the Global Financial Safety Net, 1995-2021 24
Figure 16. An Illustration of Pragmatic Approach to International Cooperation 26
Figure 17. Coverage and Data Availability for Selected Border and Behind-the-Border Trade Measures 27
Boxes
Box 1. Quantitative Estimates of Output Losses from GEF 16
Box Figures
Box Figure 1.1. Long-Term Losses, Percent of GDP, from Global Trade Fragmentation 17
Annex Figures
Figure 1. Debt Reduction Needed to Keep the Same Risk Exposure after an Uncertainty Shock Occurs, Debt-to-GDP Ratio 29
Figure 2. Debt Reduction for Self-Insurance Motives 29
