목차
List of abbreviations 5
Executive summary 6
Introduction: From voting to geopolitics in the age of permacrisis 9
1. A look at 2023: The EU learning the language of power – unlearning the language of influence? 13
2. Regions and players 15
i. The US: Back to the future? 15
ii. Latin America: Finishing the electoral marathon; entering the geopolitical one 17
iii. Indo-Pacific: A key region in shifting global dynamics 18
iv. China: A window of opportunity for more predictable relations? 19
v. Russia: Staying the course 20
vi. Ukraine: Keeping the country on track under growing existential challenges 26
vii. Türkiye: All about elections, again 29
viii. The Middle East and North Africa: Conflict returns to the region as the EU loses influence 30
Women’s rights: Lessons for the EU from Afghanistan – Special contribution by Shada Islam, EPC Senior Adviser 32
3. Flashpoints: Key issues to follow in 2024 33
4. Policies and emerging challenges: The securitisation of everything? 35
i. Cracks in the EU social contract 36
ii. EU migration and asylum: A decisive year ahead 37
iii. Navigating the AI landscape: Europe at a crossroads 38
iv. EU enlargement: Quo Vadis? 40
v. EU security & defence: Short-term needs versus long-term considerations 41
2024: A decisive year for NATO? – Special contribution by Jamie Shea, EPC Senior Adviser 44
5. Recommendations 46
Conclusion: Beyond 2024 49
Annex I. 2024 elections 50
Annex II. Key EU meetings and international summits in 2024 56
Endnotes 58
