Acknowledgements 2

Disclaimer 3

Abbreviations  4

Foreword by the WTO Director-General 6

Executive summary 8

Introduction 18

A. A short history of the long evolution of the multilateral trading system 24

  1. From bilateral treaties to a multilateral system 26

  2. The challenges facing the system today 33

B. The value of the World Trade Organization 38

  1. The multilateral trading system has delivered substantial gains for many but not all 40

  2. The system has delivered gains through rules-based cooperation 57

  3. The WTO sustains day-to-day cooperation, but more can be done 98

  4. The costs of not having the WTO 114

  5. Conclusion 120

  Appendix B1: Technical details for the semantic identification of themes discussed in General Council meetings through text-embedding analysis 122

C. Developments that challenge the system 132

  1. A changing economic power distribution is straining old bargains 134

  2. The growing relevance of different economic systems and government interventions 140

  3. The changing nature of trade is creating potential for new spillovers 148

  4. Geopolitical tensions and the transition to a multipolar global economy 162

  5. Conclusion 169

Conclusion 176

Bibliography 178

Infographics

  The value of the WTO 128

  Three scenarios for the future of global trade 130

  Four challenges facing the WTO 174

Opinion pieces

  Anne Ewurabena S. Sarfo, “How the WTO supports my international trade: a small business perspective” 47

  John W. H. Denton AO, “The value of the WTO: a business perspective” 48

  Aaditya Mattoo, “MFN, reciprocity and developing economies” 75

  Alan Sykes, “Flexibility in trade agreements” 85

  Meredith A. Crowley, “The WTO as a balancing act: predictability, flexibility and the limits of rules-based trade” 91

  Chong-En Bai, Gita Gopinath, Hélène Rey and Axel Weber, “Reforming the WTO to support beneficial trade” 110

  Paola Conconi, “Small and medium powers in the multilateral trade system” 136

  Daniel Monte and Emanuel Ornelas, “International trade rules in a post-hegemonic world” 168