EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

1. ECONOMIC FORECAST 6

1.1 Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators 6

1.2 Industrial Competition and Chinese Pressure 11

1.2.1 Short-Term Outlook: Consumer and Innovation Sectors 12

1.2.2 Medium-Term Outlook: Shipbuilding Industry 13

1.3 Trade Balance and Geopolitical Pressures 16

1.3.1 China: Trade Dependence and Strategic Vulnerabilities 16

1.3.2 United States: Tariff Policy and Industrial Realignment 17

1.3.3 Scenario Construction I: The Future of the US–ROK Tariff Deal 19

1.3.4 Regional Outlook: Integration through RCEP and CPTPP 20

2. POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL STABILITY 23

2.1 Lee Jae-myung Presidency: Democratic Stability After Constitutional Crisis 23

2.1.1 Post-Crisis Electoral Legitimacy and Mandate Strength 24

2.1.2 Military-Civilian Relations: Institutional Risk Assessment 26

2.1.3 Chaebol Reform and Political Economy Constraints 28

2.2 Inter-Korean Dynamics and Regional Security 30

2.2.1 Possible future scenarios of Inter-Korean Relations 33

2.3 Demographic Decline and Long-Term Stability Implications 36

2.3.1 Immigration and the Structural Labour Gap 39

3. TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES PROSPECTS 41

3.1 Energy Security and Electricity Transition 41

3.1.1 Outlook for South Korea’s energy mix and electrification capacity 43

3.1.2 Implications of Persian Gulf hydrocarbon dependence 46

3.2 Strategic Minerals and Tech Supply Chain Autonomy 47

3.3 Prospects for Technological Self-Sufficiency and AI Leadership 49

3.4 Defense Industry as Economic Driver 51

3.4.1 Arms Exports and Industrial Potential amid Global Rearmament 51

3.4.2 Structural Enablers and Constraints for Sector Expansion 52

CONCLUSION 55

BIBLIOGRAPHY 56