The Swedish Climate Policy Council’s remit 4
Summary 7

Part I – Current emission trends and policies 13
Introduction 14
1. Climate targets and emission trends 17
1.1. By 2045, Sweden must reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions 17
1.2. Emission trends in Sweden 21
1.3. Emissions need to be reduced more quickly than before 24

2. Link between Sweden’s and the EU’s climate policy 26
2.1. EU climate policy both hinders and enables climate action in Sweden 28
2.2. Effort-sharing regulation affects Sweden’s carbon budget 29
2.3. Revision of the EU ETS 31
2.4. EU regulation of LULUCF emissions 32
2.5. EU regulatory framework for the energy transition 32
2.6. The EU’s common agricultural policy 34
2.7. EU state aid rules 34
2.8. Comments and conclusions 35

3. Climate policy in 2022 37
3.1. Former government’s climate policy in 2022 38
3.2. Effect of former government policy on climate targets 40
3.3. Current government’s climate policy in 2022 41
3.4. Effect of current government policy on climate targets 44
3.5. Conclusions and recommendations 46

4. Assessment of the Government’s climate report 49
4.1. Transparency in climate reporting should be strengthened 49
4.2. Conclusion and recommendations 49

5. Account of the first climate policy action plan, 2019–2022 51
5.1. Contents of the first action plan 52
5.2. Follow-up of implementation 54
5.3. Conclusions and recommendations 57
6. Analysis of decision guidance documents for the climate policy action plan 60
6.1. Missions to the government agencies 60
6.2. The process and proposals from the agencies 62
6.3. Conclusions and recommendations 66

Part II Synergies and conflicts in climate policy 69
Introduction – synergies, conflicts and goal trade-offs 70
7. Synergies and conflicts – perspectives and dimensions 73
7.1. Different perspectives on synergies and conflicts 74
7.2. Diverse public interests 75
7.3. Public interests and individual interests 75
7.4. The time perspective 76
7.5. The geographical perspective 77
7.6. Extent of measures 78
7.7. The justice perspective 79
7.8. Comments and conclusions 80

8. Synergies and conflicts in four key areas for the transition 82
8.1. A more efficient use of resources and energy 82
8.2. Zero-carbon electrification 83
8.3. Biomass from forestry and agriculture 84
8.4. Carbon removal and storage 85
8.5. Comments and conclusions 86

9. Sweden’s climate targets and other societal goals 87
9.1. Societal goals for Sweden 87
9.2. Synergies and conflicts between climate targets and other societal goals 89
9.3. Review of societal goals 91
9.4. Conclusions and recommendations 95

10. Political response to the energy price increases in 2022 98
10.1. Energy markets and pricing 98
10.2. Price developments in the fuel and electricity markets 101
10.3. Managing skyrocketing energy costs 103
10.4. Political response to electricity and fuel price increases 104
10.5. Overall assessment of the policy proposals 107
10.6. Conclusions and recommendations 109

11. The industrial transition in upper Norrland 112
11.1. Synergies and conflicts are revealed 113
11.2. The need for new policies in the transition 115
11.3. Conclusions and recommendations 119

Glossary 122
References 125