What Taiwan can learn from China’s gray-zone actions against the Philippines

Title page 1

Contents 5

Executive summary 6

Introduction 7

The spectrum of gray-zone strategy 7

China's gray-zone activities in the Philippines 8

Threat levels: Philippine context 10

Philippine counteractions 12

Strengths and weaknesses of Philippine counteractions 14

Assessing gray-zone operations in the Philippines and Taiwan 19

Lessons for Taiwan 20

What can Taiwan learn from the Philippines' strengths? 20

What can Taiwan learn from the Philippines' weaknesses? 22

Conclusions and recommendations 24

About the Author 26

Tables 14

Table 1. Key takeaways of China's gray-zone activities and Philippine counteractions 14

Table 2. Philippine imports for top five commodity groups from the PRC 17

Table 3. Estimated coast guard capabilities by nation (2023) 18

Figures 8

Figure 1. Sample strategies with varying intensities 8

Figure 2. Timeline of China's territorial activities in the South China Sea 10

Figure 3. Top five nations sending visitors to the Philippines (2018-2024) 16

Figure 4. Top eight import sources for the Philippines in 2023 17

Figure 5. Taiwan's exports to major economic partners (2012-2024) 23

Figure 6. Taiwan's exports share by commodity to China and Hong Kong (2012-2024) 24