목차
Title page 1
Contents 10
Acknowledgments 4
Executive Summary 5
Introduction 12
The Economic Fronts 17
Explaining Russia's initial resilience and economic adjustment 18
The Russian economy heading into stagflation since fall 2024 24
EU's pivot to geoeconomic power: European economies have accelerated the energy transition and aligned with a strategic autonomy agenda 32
Conclusion 40
Defense and National Security: Looking for a European Offset Strategy 43
General strategies 44
The prospect of Russia-Europe military confrontation 51
Resource strategy and defense industry 63
Indirect and hybrid strategies 70
Conclusion 73
Political Systems and Societal Resilience 76
Russian population and elites are conditioned for lengthy confrontation, Europe is not 78
In the long term, Europe's model is more attractive than Russia's 99
Conclusion 109
After Putin, is reconciliation with Europe possible? 109
Alliances and International Positioning, the Race for Global Strategic Support 113
How is the war redefining the alliances and partnerships of Russia and the EU? 113
Strengths and weaknesses of international positioning 130
Conclusion 140
Conclusion 144
List of acronyms 146
Bibliography 150
Books 150
Official reports, scientific articles, think-tank publications 155
Online resources 164
Figures 19
Figure 1. Commodity price index & energy transition metals (2003-2024) 19
Figure 2. Gazprom's gas production and exports to "Far Abroad" (2021-2024) 21
Figure 3. USD/Ruble exchange rate, yearly average (2014-2025) 22
Figure 4. Main economic indicators for the Russian economy, 2021 and 2024 24
Figure 5. Russian exports to China; Chinese exports to Russia (2021-2024) 29
Figure 6. Net foreign direct investment inflows into Russia, current $ (2011-2024) 30
Figure 7. Comparison of GDP per capita data for selected countries (1999-2023) 31
Figure 8. Comparison of the Russian and the European share of GDP in the world economy, current international $ (PPP), 2014 and 2024 33
Figure 9. EU's oil and gas import costs (2019-2024) 36
Figure 10. Europe/Russia ground forces' firepower ratio 55
Figure 11. European/Russian air assets 56
Figure 12. Missiles and guided munitions production in 2025 66
Figure 13. Level of European dependency 68
Figure 14. Europeans (EU27) in favor of providing aid to Ukraine or imposing economic sanctions on Russia 78
Figure 15. Permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation 80
Figure 16. Support of European public opinion for Ukraine 84
Figure 17. Russia's age structure 101
Figure 18. The EU's age structure 103
Figure 19. Comparison of education level and innovation, European Union and Russia, 2023 105
Figure 20. Global trade volumes (2014-2024) - EU, US, Russia, China 117
Figure 21. Russia's expanding trade with selected "Global South" countries (2021-2024) 119
Figure 22. Official visits of heads of state to Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war 122
Figure 23. EU and Russian participation in international organizations 128
Figure 24. EU development aid 135
Figure 25. Foreign direct investments (FDI) flows 138
