Preface i
Figures iii
Boxes iii
Abbreviations iv
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
 1.1. Background 1
 1.2. Report structure 1
Chapter 2. Future methods in the context of war 2
 2.1. What are futures methods? 2
 2.2. Cone of plausibility 3
 2.3. The futures cycle: exploration, sense-making, decision-making 5
Chapter 3. Exploration methods 8
 3.1. Horizon scanning 8
Chapter 4. Sense-making methods 11
 4.1. STREAM 11
 4.2. The STREAM process 12
Chapter 5. Decision-making methods 15
 5.1. Robust decision-making 15
 5.2. Three horizons 18
 5.3. Assumption-based planning 21
Chapter 6. Probabilistic methods 24
 6.1. Forecasting 24
 6.2. The forecasting process 25
 6.3. The RAND Forecasting Initiative 26
Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations 29
References 31