Title page 1

Contents 3

Introduction 4

Chapter 1: China's plans for Taiwan 5

China's leaders on Taiwan and unification 5

China's civil society's views on unification 6

China's military preparations 8

Chapter 2: China's military coercion 9

China's military coercion of Taiwan 9

China's military exercises around Taiwan 10

Tracker of China's military exercises around Taiwan 12

Chapter 3: War games: how might China seek to forcibly unify Taiwan? 18

Subversion 18

Quarantine 22

Blockade 25

Invasion 28

Chapter 4: How is Taiwan responding to China's aggression? 31

A (complicated) history of preparing for war 31

Civil-society views on identity and conflict 33

The government's approach to conflict and deterrence 37

Taiwan's military preparations 38

Chapter 5: Supporting Taiwan's preparedness 41

One-China policy vs the One-China principle 41

How the US and other countries support Taiwan's preparedness 42

Countries that challenge China's excessive claims in the Taiwan Strait 44

What more can be done to support Taiwan? 46

Conclusion 49

Notes 50

Acronyms and abbreviations 55

Tables 6

Table 1. PRC policy and strategy under successive leaders 6

Table 2. Summary of China's large-scale exercises since 2022 11

Table 3. Taiwan's 'Four Pillars of Peace' 37

Table 4. US arms transfers to Taiwan (1979 to 2024) 42

Table 5. Arms transfers to Taiwan (1979 to 2024) 43

Table 6. Taiwan Strait transits, by country 45

Figures 7

Figure 1. 'Unification with Taiwan should not be by force under any circumstances' 7

Figure 2. 'Do you support launching a unification war to take back Taiwan entirely?' 7

Figure 3. 'Do you agree that Taiwan should not be unified by force under any circumstances?' 7

Figure 4. China's military and paramilitary activities around Taiwan in 2024 10

Figure 5. Exclusion zones, August 2022 12

Figure 6. Joint Sword 2023 13

Figure 7. Joint Sword 2024A 14

Figure 8. Joint Sword 2024B 15

Figure 9. 2024 drills 16

Figure 10. Strait Thunder 2025A 17

Figure 11. Status quo vs independence vs unification 34

Figure 12. 2024 survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation 34

Figure 13. 2024 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Taiwan's Institute for National Defense 34

Figure 14. 2023 Brookings survey: 'Do you worry about a cross-strait war? 35

Figure 15. 2025 Global Views survey: 'Is war likely in the next three years?' 35

Figure 16. Willingness to defend Taiwan 35

Figure 17. Pew Research Center 2023 survey 36

Figure 18. National Chengchi University Election Study Center 2023 survey 36

Figure 19. Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation 2024 survey 36