Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgments 2

Introduction 4

The strategic setting: Autocrats on the rise 6

The threat: A formidable military backed by a resilient 'war economy' 7

The state of the Russian military 7

Russian politics presents no threat to Putin's control 9

The Russian economy has rebounded from sanctions pressure 9

Russian hybrid operations seek to 'fracture' Europe 9

Russian objectives 10

The risk: NATO is not ready 11

What NATO could look like-from the status quo to full US withdrawal 13

Target 1: Russia occupies the Svalbard archipelago 14

Recommendations 16

Target 2: Russia occupies the Åland islands 17

Recommendations 18

Target 3: Russia seizes territory in eastern Estonia 19

Recommendations 20

Target 4: Russian forces seize Gotland 21

Recommendations 22

Target 5: Kaliningrad 23

Recommendations 26

Observations 27

Summary 28

Endnotes 29