Title page 1

Contents 2

1. Introduction 3

2. A history of economic security in theory and practice 4

2.1. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 5

2.2. The end of history 7

2.3. The present moment 8

2.4. Why economic and national security, not economic/national security 12

2.5. The resulting uncertainty 12

2.6. Uncertainty, 'slowbalisation' and no hegemon in sight 13

3. The semiconductor industry 15

3.1. Unpacking the semiconductor industry 16

3.2. Legacy and advanced semiconductors 16

3.3. The irresistible appeal of semiconductors 18

4. Segmenting the world semiconductor market 19

5. A sectoral agreement on semiconductors 21

5.1. The mechanics 22

5.1.1. The process for implementing the suggested sectoral 22

5.1.2. Scope of the sectoral 22

5.1.3. MFN trade 24

5.1.4. Subsidies 28

5.1.5. Export restrictions 28

5.1.6. Enforcement 29

5.2. What our proposal can achieve 29

References 31

Table 1. Leading suppliers in advanced semiconductor segments 23

Table 2. A schematic representation of our proposal 29

Figure 1. Protecting and liberalising measures at the global scale 9

Figure 2. US and Chinese protectionist and liberalising measures 9

Figure 3. Revealed objectives of trade-restricting measures 9

Figure 4. Stated motives for industrial actions by period 10

Figure 5/Figure 8. Industrial policy targeting semiconductors 20