국회도서관 국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Acknowledgments 11

Foreword 12

Executive Summary 14

Abbreviations 16

CHAPTER 1. GLOBAL OUTLOOK 17

Summary 18

Global context 23

Global trade 23

Commodity markets 24

Global inflation 26

Financial developments 26

Major economies: Recent developments and outlook 27

Advanced economies 28

China 29

Emerging market and developing economies 30

Recent developments 30

Outlook 35

Global outlook and risks 38

Global outlook 38

Risks to the outlook 44

Growth under alternative downside scenarios 48

Policy challenges 49

Key global challenges 49

Challenges in advanced economies 50

Challenges in emerging market and developing economies 51

References 59

SPECIAL FOCUS 1. GLOBAL STAGFLATION 65

Introduction 66

Evolution of inflation 67

Evolution of growth 70

Echoes of the stagflation of the 1970s? 72

Similarities to the 1970s 72

Differences from the 1970s 74

End of stagflation of the 1970s and lessons for today 77

Aftermath of high inflation in the 1970s 77

Implications for the 2020s 78

Structural forces of disinflation 79

Challenges for EMDEs 80

Policy options for EMDEs 81

ANNEX SF1.1 Methodology: Decomposing inflation 83

ANNEX SF1.2 Methodology: Estimating potential growth 85

References 86

SPECIAL FOCUS 2. RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE: Implications for Energy Markets and Activity 91

Introduction 92

Comparison with previous energy shocks 93

Lessons from previous energy shocks 94

Implications for the global economy 95

Channels 95

Impact on global activity 96

Policy implications 98

References 98

CHAPTER 2. REGIONAL OUTLOOKS 101

EAST ASIA and PACIFIC 102

Recent developments 102

Outlook 103

Risks 105

EUROPE and CENTRAL ASIA 108

Recent developments 108

Outlook 109

Risks 112

LATIN AMERICA and THE CARIBBEAN 115

Recent developments 115

Outlook 116

Risks 118

MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA 122

Recent developments 122

Outlook 123

Risks 125

SOUTH ASIA 129

Recent developments 129

Outlook 131

Risks 133

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 135

Recent developments 135

Outlook 136

Risks 138

References 142

STATISTICAL APPENDIX 145

Data and Forecast Conventions 150

Global Economic Prospects: Selected Topics, 2015-22 151

TABLE 1.1. Real GDP 19

TABLE 1.2. Emerging market and developing economies 58

TABLE 2.1.1. East Asia and Pacific forecast summary 107

TABLE 2.1.2. East Asia and Pacific country forecasts 107

TABLE 2.2.1. Europe and Central Asia forecast summary 113

TABLE 2.2.2. Europe and Central Asia country forecasts 114

TABLE 2.3.1. Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary 120

TABLE 2.3.2. Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts 121

TABLE 2.4.1. Middle East and North Africa forecast summary 127

TABLE 2.4.2. Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts 128

TABLE 2.5.1. South Asia forecast summary 134

TABLE 2.5.2. South Asia country forecasts 134

TABLE 2.6.1. Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary 140

TABLE 2.6.2. Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts 141

FIGURE 1.1. Global prospects 20

FIGURE 1.2. Global risks and policy challenges 22

FIGURE 1.3. Global trade 24

FIGURE 1.4. Commodity markets 25

FIGURE 1.5. Global inflation and financial developments 27

FIGURE 1.6. Major economies: Recent developments and outlook 28

FIGURE 1.7. Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies 30

FIGURE 1.8. Outlook in emerging market and developing economies 36

FIGURE 1.9. Per capita income in emerging market and developing economies 37

FIGURE 1.10. Global outlook 38

FIGURE 1.11. Intensifying geopolitical tensions 44

FIGURE 1.12. Stagflation 45

FIGURE 1.13. Financial stress across emerging market and developing economies 46

FIGURE 1.14. Growth under alternative downside scenarios 49

FIGURE 1.15. Policy challenges in advanced economies 51

FIGURE 1.16. Monetary policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies 52

FIGURE 1.17. Fiscal policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies 53

FIGURE 1.18. Structural policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies 55

FIGURE 2.1.1. China: Recent developments 103

FIGURE 2.1.2. EAP excluding China: Recent developments 104

FIGURE 2.1.3. EAP: Outlook 105

FIGURE 2.1.4. EAP: Risks 106

FIGURE 2.2.1. ECA: Recent developments 109

FIGURE 2.2.2. ECA: Outlook 110

FIGURE 2.2.3. ECA: Risks 112

FIGURE 2.3.1. LAC: Recent developments 116

FIGURE 2.3.2. LAC: Outlook 117

FIGURE 2.3.3. LAC: Risks 119

FIGURE 2.4.1. MNA: Recent developments 123

FIGURE 2.4.2. MNA: Outlook 124

FIGURE 2.4.3. MNA: Risks 125

FIGURE 2.5.1. SAR: Recent developments 130

FIGURE 2.5.2. SAR: Outlook 131

FIGURE 2.5.3. SAR: Risks 132

FIGURE 2.6.1. SSA: Recent developments 136

FIGURE 2.6.2. SSA: Outlook 137

FIGURE 2.6.3. SSA: Risks 139

Boxes

BOX 1.1. Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks 31

BOX 1.2. Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries 39

Box Tables

TABLE B1.2.1. Low-income country forecasts 42

Box Figures

FIGURE B1.1.1. Regional outlooks 32

FIGURE B1.1.2. Regional risks 33

FIGURE B1.2.1. LICs: Recent developments 40

FIGURE B1.2.2. LICs: Outlook and risks 41

Special Focus Figures

FIGURE SF1.1. Inflation 68

FIGURE SF1.2. Drivers of inflation in 2020-22 70

FIGURE SF1.3. Growth 71

FIGURE SF1.4. Developments in the 1970s and 2020s: Similarities 73

FIGURE SF1.5. EMDE vulnerabilities 74

FIGURE SF1.6. Developments in the 1970s and 2020s: Cyclical differences 75

FIGURE SF1.7. Developments in the 1970s and 2020s: Structural differences 76

FIGURE SF1.8. End of stagflation of the 1970s and vulnerabilities in EMDEs 78

FIGURE SF1.9. Long-term inflation expectations 80

FIGURE SF2.1. Commodity dependence and energy prices 93

FIGURE SF2.2. Market responses to price shocks 95

FIGURE SF2.3. Implications for global economic activity 97

Annex Special Focus Figures

FIGURE A.SF1.1. Drivers of inflation in 2020-22: Alternative inflation measures 84