Title page

Contents

Summary 4

01. Introduction: the Integrated Review's four priorities 6

02. What has the government achieved against its objectives? 10

Supporting a liberal democratic international order 10

Supporting international security 15

Supporting global resilience 20

Promoting the national economic agenda 26

03. Next steps 41

Rebuilding relations with the EU 42

Reinforcing the transatlantic relationship with a G7 Plus 47

Rethinking the strategic purpose of UK trade policy 50

Being a reliable global partner 54

04. Conclusion 61

About the author 65

Acknowledgments 66

Table 1. Comparison of the UK's soft power rankings 54

Figure 1. Top 10 defence budgets 2021 15

Figure 2. Total donations pledged to COVAX at January 2022, leading governmental donors 21

Figure 3. Comparative UK donor rankings in the Indo-Pacific by recipient country, July 2021 23

Figure 4. Projected shortfalls in GDP in 2024, in comparison with pre-pandemic IMF projections, selected economies at April 2021 25

Figure 5. Impact of Brexit trade barriers on UK businesses, June 2021 27

Figure 6. UK exports by destination (EU/non-EU), selected monthly totals, 2018-21 27

Figure 7. UK imports by origin (EU/non-EU), selected monthly totals, 2018-21 27

Figure 8. Rates of post-COVID-19 economic recovery in G7 countries and eurozone, 2019/2021 28

Figure 9. Venture capital investment in fintech companies, 2020, by country of destination 30

Figure 10. Value of tech start-up and scale-up ecosystems, 2015-20, selected European economies 31

Figure 11. Venture capital investment in tech companies by city, 2020 31

Figure 12. Interest rate derivatives traded in the EU and UK markets, October 2021 32

Figure 13. Trading and clearing flow of euro interest rate swaps, by notional traded, Q2 2021 32

Figure 14. Average daily value of equity trading in major financial centres, 2020-21 33

Figure 15. Value of initial public offerings 2014-21 in London, Stockholm and Amsterdam 33

Figure 16. Government space budgets, 2020, selected G20 members 35

Figure 17. Who has signed trade deals with whom? 37

Figure 18. UK imports from selected partner countries, 2019/2021 39

Figure 19. Inward FDI stock from China in the UK, 2014-20 40

Figure 20. Change in relative soft power rankings 2016/21, selected countries 55

Figure 21. Future intentions to engage with the UK, 2016-21 55

Figure 22. 2030 emissions under new or updated NDCs, 1990/2005/2018, selected economies 59