국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

The Forces Shaping the Outlook 3

Downturn ahead, Downside Risks Dominate 5

2.1. Baseline Scenario 6

2.2. Downside Risks 9

2.3. Quantitative Impact: Global Alternative Scenario 12

Policy Priorities 13

GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY UPDATE 17

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 8

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE: GLOOMY AND MORE UNCERTAIN 3

Figure 1. Global Inflation Forecasts: Serial Upside Surprises 3

Figure 2. Longer-Term Inflation Expectations 4

Figure 3. China: COVID-19 Outbreaks and Supply chain Disruptions 4

Figure 4. Higher Food and Energy Prices 5

Figure 5. Rising Uncertainties and Risks 6

Figure 6. Declining Flow of Russian Pipeline Gas to the EU 9

Figure 7. Emerging Market Debt: Rising Vulnerabilities 11

Figure 8. Global Alternative Scenario 12

GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY UPDATE 17

Figure 1.1. Financial Conditions in Selected Regions 17

Figure 1.2. Policy Rate Expectatioins: Advanced Economies 17

Figure 1.3. Change ini Bond Yields: Most Recent GFSR to End of June 18

Figure 1.4. Inflation Breakevens 18

Figure 1.5. US Equity Return Decomposition 18

Figure 1.6. Global Equity Returns in 2022 by Sector and Region 19

Figure 1.7. Emerging Market Sovereign Issuance 19